I finally got a chance to browse through the SIL site that you linked to. Fascinating stuff. Their count of Philippine languages is higher than what I've heard - the number 87 is frequently cited - but the review seems pretty thorough. I suppose a lot depends on where you draw the line between dialect and language. Hard to do with many of these languages, which are forever in flux, adopting terms from more dominant neighboring tongues. Many of them are now difficult to find spoken in their "pure" state.
SIL has been active here for many years, and has a somewhat dubious reputation - a spook connection is so thoroughly rumoured that it is often taken for granted. I don't know if this is a result of actions here or the better-documented activities in Latin America. They do seem awfully well supplied for an obscure group whose stated aim is to translate the bible into every known language. I've often thought it odd that they can be so eager to preserve the linguistic manifestations of indigenous cultures in their original state, but so eager to demolish and replace the religious manifestations of the same cultures. I suppose to a true believer there is no contradiction.
I've travelled through most of the country, lived in several regions, and have been a student of local language and culture for some time; I speak Tagalog and Cebuano well enough to pass for a native on the phone, and can get by in several others. Answers to your questions, to the best of my knowledge:
Almost everyone speaks a few words of English, but I would guess that the number that could actually call it a second language is much lower than the 52% cited by SIL. I've seen that figure before, and I believe it is based on the assumption that all adults who have completed a certain degree of education are reasonably conversant in English. I don't think that's so. I would say that general levels of proficiency in English has declined noticeably, especially among the young, since I first came here ('79). Interesting to note that Spanish, the Imperial language for 300 years, has virtually disappeared.
In the mid '50's (while the action is often attributed to Ferdinand Marcos, it actually happened before his time) the Philippine government convened a panel of linguists to create a national language. The linguists were Tagalogs, which have always been the politically and culturally dominant group, mainly because Manila was in their territory. They imposed a "proper" grammatical structure on Tagalog, called it "Pilipino", and the government imposed it as a national language. There was substantial resistance from other ethnic groups, especially the more numerous Cebuanos, and to this day Cebuano politicians pretend they don't speak it. "Pilipino" has been taught in schools since its inception, but it is in effect a dead language, as virtually nobody but linguists and academics, not even Tagalogs, can speak it "correctly". Where schooling has failed, though, mass culture has succeeded - the growth of national radio, TV, and movie industries, dominated by Tagalogs and using Tagalog, has brought the language around the archipelago, and it is now very commonly spoken (though not in the academic "Pilipino" form), especially by the young, outside traditional Tagalog territory. In polyglot "settler cities" like Davao, in Mindanao, Tagalog is most commonly spoken. 23% is an accurate figure for native Tagalog speakers, but it is much more widely spoken as a second language than English. At the same time, dominant regional languages like Ilocano in the north and Cebuano in the south are making inroads on smaller linguistic groups. Not long ago it would have been very difficult for, say, Kankanaeys and Kalingas to communicate. Now they can, not because they switch consciously to Ilocano, but because both languages have absorbed so many Ilocano terms (many members of both tribes do speak both languages, and understand the distinction, but the distinction is increasingly becoming blurred). This is happening in tribal areas of Mindanao as well (though Cebuano is the lingua franca) and is simply a result of better transportation and communications and fewer ethnic feuds. As the need to communicate grows, people find ways to do it.
"Pilipino is presently the national language. Filipino is to be developed from it to replace it."
This is entirely new to me, and I would be very surprised if any such plan actually existed. Even if it did, it would be virtually impossible to implement. The notion that a language can be "developed" by executive fiat is pretty well recognized as absurd.
Like most ex-colonies, the borders of the Philippines, Indonesia, and India were drawn without regard for ethnic, linguistic, or religious realities. This has of course resulted in many conflicts in the post-colonial world. Even where there has not been outright war, the arbitrary nature of post-colonial "nationhood" is, I believe, a major factor in the tendency of individuals and leaders to give primary loyalty to clan and ethnic group, rather than the nation. Even where overt secession or civil war is not present, this tendency is often used to justify corruption and mismanagement, and is an important contributing cause of persistent underdevelopment in many areas.
How would Asia have developed if colonists had not arrived? Islam would surely have continued its spread, and Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea would probably be one nation today. Which would be a pretty thorough redrawing of the Asian scene, though it might of course have gone very differently. Easy to speculate, impossible to know.
The Russians in my past are a consequence of the rather monomaniacal intensity with which my progenitors pursued their literary/academic careers. My mother, a medievalist, once went out and learned medieval Icelandic simply to read certain dour sagas in their original state; in that environment it was only natural that my father's affection for Dostoevsky and Chekov would have somewhat extreme results. In my uncle's case, I think it was mostly that his wife had a grant to spend time in Moscow, and he needed something to do while there, other than trying to convince the poor KGB guy that was assigned to keep track of him to do it by getting drunk together. Academics are odd; despite my own lack of formal education I can sympathize to a degree.
Family is all better, obviously; time to start shopping for another car and fighting insurance battles. Oh, joy...
Merry Christmas,
Steve
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