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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tech fool who wrote (18815)	12/11/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 69293

Hi tech fool. I'll respond this weekend......Gee, I just found out that AMR had warned earlier today. Not a bad performance for the DOW considering two warnings today. What was with the SUNW? Clint

To: tech fool who wrote (18815)	12/14/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69293

Hi tech man. >>>SOX held 330, SPX held 1155, even RUT refused to budge much. Firming up for a January rally? Or just weakening the supports? As for RUT, same answer as two weeks ago. It is fighting an uphill battle. Statistically-speaking, you are better off not placing your bet on this index. Will it do anything in Jan? I doubt it. As for SOX, the index gave up 30 points in 3-1/2 days just as non-informed traders started chasing the secondary stocks in the group. SOX traded at intraday high & 52-wk high of 362 on Dec. 8th (http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^SOXX&d=5d) when Mark Edelstone of MWD increased his price targets for INTC, TXN, RMBS, XLNX, ALTR, LSCC (all SOX members).... and MCHP, and RMBS. cbs.marketwatch.com ((((Analysts are known to upgrade at the top and downgrade at the bottom....It happens to those who follow fundamentals like Edelstone or technicals like Ralph Acompara)))) Since then SOX has lost 10%. Let's see what that 10% means. SOX is a price-weighted index and as of last Friday's close, INTC, RMBS, TXN, and LLTC made up 32.3% of the index. These stocks have dropped mostly less than 10% since Dec. 8th. In contrast, stocks like AMAT,NVLS,KLAC,TER have dropped ~20% since then. My point is that not to get distracted by what the index does because the index may drop much less than its individual stocks, especially when INTC,RMBS,TXN,LLTC are still up there, price-wise. What happened? Reality check, again. Fundamentals came back into the picture. The chip makers were(and still are) trading based on late 99 projections and the gear makers based on year 2000 projections. That kind of momentum is usually short-lived and is not sustainable when the road ahead is still foggy. To answer your question after this long introduction, these stocks have more firming up to do at lower prices before rallying in Jan. That is very normal. SOX can easily drop another 10% to 300 before the 2nd. week of Jan. when MOT reports earnings. Nevertheless, I've liked selected stocks within the group all year long as long-term investments and back in Oct. as turnaround stories. Therefore, I would be a buyer of MOT at ~53 INTC at ~112, 2nd. buy in at ~108. Clint