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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (2485)	12/12/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

"Sam, Can you point me to the evidence?" As I said -- it's anecdotal. In other words, its based upon perception and stories I'm hearing. Could be way off, of course. We'll see. "First as you know UBID is not shortable yet." No -- but MALL is VERY shortable. And, finally, I agree with you about rev growth. But there are other factors to way in as well. (1) What type of rev growth does the street expect from ONSL. Amazon is priced to expect rev growth far greater than ONSL (in the very near term). Hence the hefty premium. Same with many of the other e-tailers. And (2) What sort of rev growth can we expect down the road. ONSL is aggressively moving into other markets (busness to business). Plus, their revs from the YHOO person to person site have yet to be factored in to ANY quarterly report. Both ventures could turn out to be busts. Or not. But neither will really be evident in this quarter's earnings -- as I'm sure you know. By contrast, UBID is newer, IMO substantially weaker in terms of its partnering power, and very one-dimensional. That's why I find MALL a much better short. That said, ONSL and or UBID could shoot up or down dramatically based on factors beyond our control.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (2485)	12/14/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4903

Tom <<UBID sales increased 127% from 6.3 MM to 15.3 MM, while ONSL's sales only rose 14% from 50.8 MM to 57.8 MM. No firework there.>> a market focus to future growth relative UBID vs. ONSL is not comparative sequential sales growth. bottom line is which company moves products at the quickest pace through the channel at X gross profit benefit? UBID competes in the same space for product receipt as does ONSL. Right now the player with (a) the biggest bucks, (b) the biggest market presence, and (c) the most extensive product diversity is winning the lion's share of products to sell. That's ONSL. ONSL's vacation packages/time shares are fully operational (limited packaging) for the final qtr this year - wasn't the case for previous two qtrs. should add to btm. line. ONSL actually made a profit last qtr. but chose to use the earnings to expand product offerings (put it back into the bus.). Express Bid was nearly 10% of total sales last qtr. (operational for only two months) This qtr. there are significantly more Express Bid items - should help. Number of bids were up 25% sequentially (in two months) before they stopped reporting with the new site. UBID, the new kid, can throw cash (from the offering) at products to attract intial patronage - but not for long. in six months they'll need to play profit with the bigger boys. As a comparision feature, ONSL has nearly 250 desktops/notebooks from which to choose, UBID, about 40. ONSL offers Networking gear, Servers, Sports & Fitness equipment, digital satellites, musical instruments, etc. UBID, none. ONSL's new agreement with ACTC will bring ONSL into selling a more extensive line of networking along with mainframes. UBID's got a ways to go here. One thing likable about UBID is its offering of sunglasses. Probably not a big cash item; but ONSL should do likewise. ONSL wants to attract more women shoppers. They're adding product changes to address this issue (make-up? perfume?. announcements forthecoming. $33 or less is ugly, but probably correct (not for long though friend)