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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (18)	12/16/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: FJB	Respond to of 195

Firm: Hambrecht & Quist Department: Technology Industry: Semiconductors Date: 12/11/98 1/2: Semiconductors--Probable Weakness in Q1:99 and Growth Thereafter * We believe that semiconductor demand may fade at the end of Q4 and early Q1 as has historically been the case. Although there is little visibility into Q1, there is reason to believe that demand and supply will be imbalanced. * Weakness in the semiconductor market, if it occurs, will be driven by suppliers cranking up production in front of a seasonally slow period. It is likely that semiconductor production rates are now above end consumption as channel inventory is being replenished. * Over the last quarter, the industry has experienced a strengthening demand for components--Intel pre-announced positive surprises in both Q3 and Q4. We have also seen utilization rates increase at Intel as it can not build product fast enough to satisfy demand. Certain configurations of DRAMs are on allocation, and pricing for DRAMs are up 25-30% from their July lows. There is a renewed trickle of capital spending and the resumption of planning for the addition of new capacity. We believe that this is likely to be as good as it gets in the near term. However, the current forecasts are being made with rulers and are extrapolating a sequentially up Q1. * The compression of the electronic pipeline has pretty much run its course. As supply and demand tighten in the 2nd half of 1999, we would expect lead times to stretch, manufacturing inefficiencies to emerge, and the pipeline to expand once again. This makes us more optimistic for 1999 as a whole. * In the near term, however, we believe there is risk in the semiconductor and equipment sector due to an increased probability of a slower Q1 and more optimistic Wall Street expectations. We would not be adding to positions in the sector and would use the current strength to lighten up on positions for more aggressive trading oriented accounts. However, we would strongly recommend investors aggressively buy weakness in Q1 as we are nearing the beginning of a 2-3 year up cycle in the semiconductor industry.>> Message 6857768

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (18)	12/18/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 195

Uh oh. This story sounds like post-Christmas lies to me. <VBG> PC-Related Stocks Rise As 'Less Severe' 1Q Seen Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Shares of personal-computer-related stocks rose early Friday on expectations that the industry will have a softer landing than usual in the first quarter. The industry is seeing solid demand in the current quarter, which is typically its strongest, analysts said. But they also said the first quarter - which usually greets the industry like a New Year's Day hangover - won't be as harsh as usual. "PC demand remains solid and inventories appear to be lean," said Mark Edelstone, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. He also expects "less-severe-than-average seasonality in the first quarter." For these reasons, Edelstone boosted his earnings estimates on Intel Corp. (INTC), the leading computer-chip maker. For this year, Edelstone raised his estimates to $3.48 a share from $3.45; he also boosted his estimates for next year to $4.60 a share from $4.40. Intel shares rose 3 1/8, or 2.7%, to 120 in early trading Friday. Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ) shares rose 1 5/8, or 4.2%, to 41 3/4, and Dell Computer Corp. (DELL) shares rose 1 1/2, or 2.2%, to 67 1/4. Semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) rose 8% after Goldman Sachs said in a research note that gross margins are improving and first-quarter earnings probably will come in "toward the high end of previous guidance."