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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon K. who wrote (5299)	12/14/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: Jon K.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

Why I feel AWRE price should be around $12 to $15 ------Actual-----Estimates------------------------------------ ------96----97----98----99----00----01----02----03-----04-----05---7 yr.sum Rev. $5.30 $6.20 $12.0 $25.0 $40.0 $80.0 $80.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $405.0 Exp. $5.80 $12.3 $13.0 $17.0 $25.0 $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $177.0 N/I $(0.5) $(6.1) $(1.0) $8.00 $15.0 $40.0 $45.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $228.0 As I mentioned before, Aware's asset is its technology. If someone else come up with a better technology, Aware is doomed over night. (For example, if satellite technology leaps and service price drops, then watch out!) And even within DSL technology, there will be a fierce competition. But let's assume DSL technology will prosper for next 7 years I will assume there are 50/50 chance that new technology will replace DSL technology and there are 50/50 chance that AWRE will continue to do well after 7 years. So let's just say next 7 years will be AWRE's peak years to make money As an investor I need to know how long it will take to recoup my investment. From above chart,(I think it is a VERY rosy chart) we can expect $228 million net income in 7 years. Current outstanding shares are little over 20 million shares. ($400 million market cap.) Which brings current price to be $12. ($228, let's make this $240 million divided by 20 million shares) I will even through in $3/share ($60 million ) as remaining book value after 7 years. Which brings to $15/ share now. ( This price does not even include any profit or time valuation - this is just to recover original investment) If Mr. Michael Tzannes can paint the above picture any better than I can, I will buy AWRE again. (I seriously doubt AWRE will even make $100 million net income in next 7 years) But for now, I am still SHORT.