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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robnhood who wrote (39405)	12/15/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

are you self taught in your form of analysis or is it based on a published author? and as a follow up, does it work pretty well for you on a year in year out basis? tia

To: robnhood who wrote (39405)	12/15/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

People keep comparing the 1990s to the 1920s and doing overlay charts of the market then. But the longer pattern is even more remarkable. Look at what happened over 36 years, from 1895 to 1929, and compare it to about 40 years, from around 1957 until now: cpcug.org I wouldn't pretend that there is any kind of inevitable repetition or cycle, but the patterns may have something to do with generational memories (or forgetfulness) of boom and bust. Back in the 1970s, John Train was writing with confidence if a 4-year stock market cycle, which has been completely discredited by the last eleven years in which there has been no really disastrous washout. In the absence of a gold-backed currency to yank things back into place by forcing debtors into bankruptcy, it's hard to guess what happens next. About all the Fed can do is keep allowing money supply to balloon until inflation starts to move up, and then raise interest rates to tey to control that. As Keynes said, not one person in a thousand will understand that the inflation has been caused by the money-supply expansion, and our government will try to blame it on something outside the country and outside government control. The next step (according to Ernest Hemingway, at least) is to start some kind of war. In any case, a system that permits people with negative savings rates to lease $35,000 SUVs and drive these monster gas guzzlers on 83-cents-per-gallon gasoline, while using borrowed money to speculate on Internet stocks--such a system is not likely to prove very stable.