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To: brian h who wrote (19764)	12/15/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Why did Tero quote The Data quest study without quoting Qualcomms correction?

To: brian h who wrote (19764)	12/15/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Brian, Nokia is world's number two in the overall mobile infrastucture market; I'd have a hard time describing them as a small fish. Focusing on GSM-1800 seems like a winner, because the sales in this sector are growing considerably faster than the overall network market. Being number one in one sector is a whole lot better than being number three in a lot of sectors, as Motorola's network troubles have illustrated. In consumer product business, economies of scale are more important than on the infrastructure side. And since the handset sales growth is far higher than the network sales growth, I see this area as a more promising engine for growth than the network biz. Economic downturns can cause sharp curtailing in new network deals (as it has in Asia) - but evidence is showing that handset sales growth does not react adversely to mild recessions. It's as close to recession-proof as a high-tech consumer business can be, far more resilient than PC business, for example. Lucent knows all this - that's why they tried desperately hard to make it in the handset market, just like Nortel did a while ago. Only when they failed they started sniffing that they don't really want to be in handset manufacturing, it's a commodity biz, anyway. American investment experts fell for this snow job - that's why Lucent's P/E ratio suffered very little or not at all from their mobile phone fiasco. Getting sidelined from one the world's hottest growth markets is hardly a credit for either of these companies. Just how deep is this Frezza trauma anyway? It's like he's part of the collective unconsciousness of this thread, some kind of mythical arch demon... Jung would have a field day here. As far as my supposed handset fixation is concerned - after you see Nokia's China sales figures for this winter, you may understand my preoccupation. Tero