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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: the options strategist who wrote (9257)12/15/1998 3:37:00 PM
From: jebj  Respond to of 14162
 
Herm -

In the early posts on the board you mentioned that the VIX should be around 20-22 and if it rose above that figure the market was coming down.

It has been around 30 for a while now - time for thoes puts?

Do you think we are in for a substained downturn or just the normal ups and downs?

jb



To: the options strategist who wrote (9257)12/15/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14162
 
Ok Jen,

Don't forget that the VIX is a contrarian indicator. That is:

VIX SUMMARY

Signal Before Strong Bull Run - Low VIX values!
[buy calls, buy stocks, sell puts]

Signal Before Strong Bear Run - High VIX values!
[buy puts, sell CCs, short against the box, sell stock]



To: the options strategist who wrote (9257)12/15/1998 6:23:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
 
Yeah Jen,

Spent some serious money on the two trips! Well, Mr. Nasdaq paid for it!




To: the options strategist who wrote (9257)12/24/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14162
 
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to Everyone!

BTGC FINALLY BREAKS $6.00 RESISTANCE

Talk about overhead resistance! BTGC has been experiencing much higher
volume trading this past week and still it just moved sideways for the
longest time! Now, we have cleared that $6.00 and should be heading
towards that $8.00! BTGC is selling way under a fair price. It's a
long term bargain and a good CC workhorse. BTGC is still sporting a
25% annual growth rate and only a 17 P/E when 39 P/E is the norm in
the bio-tech drug industry. The next earnings report is due out around
January 22, 1999 and no pre-announcement warning is just another clue
that BTGC is hammering away with ANOTHER good earning release next
month!

Recent BTGC Volume
Date Close Change %CHG. High Low Volume
Dec 24 6 1/8 + 3/8 +6.52% 6 1/4 5 3/4 691,800
Dec 23 5 3/4 - 1/32 -0.54% 5 7/8 5 23/32 601,900
Dec 22 5 25/32 + 1/32 +0.54% 5 13/1 6 5 5/8 733,700
Dec 21 5 3/4 - 1/32 -0.54% 5 13/1 6 5 11/16 651,800
Dec 18 5 25/32 + 3/32 +1.65% 5 25/32 5 9/16 593,900

BTGC P/E VALUATION

NASDAQ: (BTGC : $6 1/8) $288 million Market Cap at December 24, 1998
Trades at a 56% Discount PE Multiple of 17.0 X, vs. the 39.0 X
average multiple at which the Drugs SubIndustry is priced.

Short Interest

Short Interest for BTGC was 6.9% of the shares outstanding, requiring
8 days to cover. The volume the last few days leads me to believe that
much of that covering was absorbed by the shorts. So, there may be a
solid four to five days worth of short squeeze left!

Nov 98 3,242,043 +1 413,868 8
Oct 98 3,194,411 -3 394,426 9
Sep 98 3,309,616 -11 389,354 9
Aug 98 3,709,426 -12 338,228 11
Jul 98 4,206,202 -9 386,253 11
Jun 98 4,602,679 -7 247,841 19
May 98 4,971,531 -1 649,642 8
Apr 98 5,046,068 -10 405,508 13
Mar 98 5,581,271 -7 783,743 8
Feb 98 5,970,111 -1 806,572 8
Jan 98 6,012,296 +1 432,876 14
Dec 97 5,960,805 +2 307,017 20


BTGC BB and RSI
The BTGC chart is still looking better. The RSI is pretty strong and
is above the 50 level which is encouraging. The retest of the old
bottom is over. In fact, a double-bottom phase has been successfully
been reacher and BTGC should tag that upper BB around $7.00 without
much problems and perhaps launch upwards with a great earnings
release.
askresearch.com

Covered Calls?
I covered my Jan. CCs much too early this time around. I'm sitting on
the stock until a tag of the upper BB is achieved and then I will
review again for another round of CCs. I'm looking to add more stock
now that it's moving again. In fact, buying long calls as a sideshow
may not be a bad idea. I can exercise later or just cash out with a
profit!