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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (6050)	12/18/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

P/E Estimate 20 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Laptops (M) 13.7 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 % employing LiP 0 0 5.00% 10% 30% 50% 50% 50% 50% LiP Laptops (M) - - 0.75 1.60 5.10 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.00 LiP Add-on Packs (M) - - 0.38 0.80 2.55 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.00 Total Laptop LiP Batts (M) - - 1.13 2.40 7.65 13.50 14.25 15.00 15.00 Laptop Batt Price $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 Margin 25% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% Laptop Batt Unit Profit $19 $19 $19 $18 $17 $17 $16 $15 $14 Laptop Revenue (M$) $ - $ - $21.09 $43.20 $131.96 $222.75 $224.44 $225.00 $213.75 VLNC Market Share 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% VLNC Profit (M$) $ - $ - $ 4.22 $ 8.64 $ 26.39 $ 44.55 $ 44.89 $ 45.00 $ 42.75 VLNC Shares (M) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VLNC Profit/Share $ - $ - $ 0.21 $ 0.43 $ 1.32 $ 2.23 $ 2.24 $ 2.25 $ 2.14 VLNC Share Price (Lap) $ - $ - $ 4.22 $ 8.64 $ 26.39 $ 44.55 $ 44.89 $ 45.00 $ 42.75 Cell Phones (M) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 % employing LiP 0 0 5.00% 10% 30% 50% 50% 50% 50% LiP Phones (M) - - 5.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 LiP Add-on Packs (M) - - 2.50 5.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 Total Phone LiP Batts (M) - - 7.50 15.00 45.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 CellPhone Batt Price $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 Margin 25% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% CellPhone Batt Profit $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 4.80 $ 4.60 $ 4.40 $ 4.20 $ 4.00 $ 3.80 Phone Revenue(M$) $ - $ - $37.50 $72.00 $207.00 $330.00 $315.00 $300.00 $285.00 VLNC Market Share 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% VLNC Profit (M$) $ - $ - $ 7.50 $14.40 $ 41.40 $ 66.00 $ 63.00 $ 60.00 $ 57.00 VLNC Shares (M) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VLNC Profit/Share $ - $ - $ 0.38 $ 0.72 $ 2.07 $ 3.30 $ 3.15 $ 3.00 $ 2.85 VLNC Share Price (Cell) $ - $ - $ 7.50 $14.40 $ 41.40 $ 66.00 $ 63.00 $ 60.00 $ 57.00 Total VLNC Share Price $ - $ - $11.72 $23.04 $ 67.79 $110.55 $107.89 $105.00 $ 99.75

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (6050)	12/18/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Oops, sorry John. Your point is right on ... still, I needed to run some numbers to clarify for myself the various assumptions that have been flying around ... this crude model reflects: - ramp up of LiPoly into laptop and cellphone markets - assumptions about net margin (EBITwhatever), VLNC market share - assumptions about market size the cellphone market is much larger than I expected but gvander posted some nice links about that ... I used the new cellphone ship rate from the referenced articles. For both laptops and handsets, I added 50% additional batts per unit shipped to estimate accessory batts. I only included laptops and cellphnes, no PDAs, etc. My motivation here is to get feedback about my assumptions and understanding ... if I'm blowing smoke, I'd like to understand that. And ... tables do not a profit make. Time for "show me the money", as John says.