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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRINDY who wrote (2140)	12/16/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hello All, DAILY LOOK BACK The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed down at 8790.6 for a total daily drop of 32.7 points (.37%) and still down 218.59 points (2.43%) from a week ago. I noted yesterday that the Dow had an 85% chance of going higher today and it made it by 27.55 points. TRANSPORTS closed down at 2869.82 or 13.5 points (.47%) and 193.98 points (6.33%) lower than a week-ago. The UTILITIES closed up at 306.57 or 2.09 points (.69%) and are only down .18 points from last week. The S&P 500 very slightly up at .86 points but is still 21.52 points (1.82%) lower than last week. As predicted with the 85% rule – the S&P 500 had a higher high today of 3.46 points. The NAZ was down 3.24 points (.16%) at 2009.36 and 41.06 points (2.0%) from one week-ago. It also achieved the predicted higher high by 30.35 points. BIRINYI OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD INDICATOR 52.00 52.00 WEEK WEEK OVER OVER INDEX LOW HIGH CLOSE BOTTOM 50DMA TOP SOLD BOUGHT DJIA 7379.70 9457.95 8790.60 7310.65 8714.74 9824.12 0.00% 6.84% DJTA 2260.24 3735.38 2869.82 2259.86 2863.03 3242.55 0.00% 1.79% DJUA 259.51 323.65 306.57 285.59 306.69 346.17 0.55% 0.00% S&P 912.83 1193.53 1161.97 936.32 1111.83 1240.65 0.00% 38.92% NAZ 1343.87 2060.98 2009.36 1431.37 1820.03 2119.08 0.00% 63.31% No change in any of the P&F charts at Message 6853102. With permission from INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE/CHARTCRAFT, here's a dab of info: Sentiment Index 12/18/98 12/11/98 % of Advisors Bullish 56.8 57.4 % of Advisors Bearish 31.4 31.3 % of Advisors Correction 11.8 11.3 Bulls 10 Week MA 59.5 57.8 Still a great many bullish newsletters. Of special note is the fact that the New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index reversed down to Bull Correction at 51.5. Bull Correction status was discussed at Message 6859876. For us the defense is on the field. Take care, Eric

To: TRINDY who wrote (2140)	12/18/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

Market Signals--12/18/98 With the positive action yesterday, the NAZ and utilities have turned positive and all remaining signals on the DOW, NYSE, S&P 500, TRN, and the three breadth indicators I follow are negative, but decidedly less so. This may prove to be the end of the downturn although it will take a few more days of average positive action to turn the DOW signal positive. Not a time to be short in my opinion. Not much reason to be long, either, with the exception of the generally strong seasonal pattern we are entering. Obviously, to me anyway, we are in a stock market mania that is likely to continue, which is probably reason enough to buy this market. It is surprising that the impeachment action is not having an impact. Guess it is fully discounted. What remains to be discounted is what will be a rising probability that Clinton may well be convicted in the Senate. A few weeks ago we didn't think the votes were there in the House. A few weeks from now it will become clear that the votes may well be there in the Senate for conviction. BWDIK?