Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (13257)	12/16/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

<<I think our safe position is to figure he rules against, and we take a 20 point hit>> I must respectfully disagree, and I've backed my position by buying call options today (January 135's). This is risky, considering the air strike, but that is another issue, I think the air strikes have given a temporary opportunity to get in on Microsoft. I have to give the market credit for getting it right. This stock rallied when South Carolina dropped out. Now it is irrelevant how the judge rules, since microsoft has taken the hits publicly and in court and the prosecution is winding down it's case ( a case, by the way that gets weaker the longer it wears on). Now as the prosecution is about to rest, we have the Judge himself admitting the case is weak. So I'm looking for a 25 point or so run from here to mid January, here's the reasons why: 1. Runup towards good earnings (when has MSFT ever screwed up earnings?) 2. Defense begins. 3. Earnings warning season ending. 4. January buying of indexes(MSFT Huge component), Jan effect. 5. AOL/Netscape deal closes, providing boost to defense 6. Relief when bombing stops. Folks, all you need is 20 points with options to make boatload cash. Remember, your good buddy JP gave this to you free of charge, just because he's so grateful for the fine capitalist system, and he wants to give something back.

To: LindyBill who wrote (13257)	12/17/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: KM	Respond to of 74651

Different opinion and interesting commentary on the tape action at the end of the day yesterday: Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: Information Overload By James J. Cramer 12/17/98 7:35 AM ET Talk about information overload. Remember that scene in Strangers on a Train where Hitchcock cuts from the tennis match to brutality and back over and over? That's what it was like Wednesday trying to focus on the new wrinkle of the Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) case on my screen, then on CNBC for the war and impeachment, then on my screen again for the havoc caused by the expiration-related sell programs. There was so much confusion that, at one point, the market seemed to lose its own feel for what was right. The anti-Microsoft judge issues the most pro-Microsoft statement of the whole shootin' match, and the stock was going down, dropping from 134 to 132, as if Judge Jackson had ruled Gates in contempt! Sinking like a stone. The largest stock in the largest market ignored the largest piece of news about the largest antitrust case? Wow. That's pretty amazing -- market imperfection of the highest order. The surreal nature of the experience dawned on me when I thought, hold it, if I take that 132 1/2 stock, aren't I making a bet that the air strike is surgical, that the job will be done and done quickly and that there will be no ground war? Am I making a bet that I will wake up on Thursday and the war will be over? Can one take be that heavily laden with current events? Of course, in the time it took me to realize I had to have that 132 1/2 stock, others did too, and the stock did an about-face and ran back up to 134 and change. The market had momentarily come to its senses and bet that Microsoft has a shot of getting out of this thing alive and well, courtesy of America Online's (AOL:NYSE) combination with Netscape (NSCP:Nasdaq). The callous nature, the East of Eden implications are lost on no one. It is sick to think about how to make money when others are making war. But in this bizarre electronic-war era, I know the market will open at 9:30, so I can't abdicate my job for the sake of the news. Microsoft is therefore my microcosm of the situation; it is what I have come to know about war and bombs and trading. When the smoke clears, Jackson's gone positive on Mr. Softee. And that's why I was buying, not selling.