To: H James Morris who wrote (30320 ) 12/18/1998 8:11:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
BANK ON IT.... Financial stocks were another strong group after Chase Manhattan said its fourth-quarter results would beat Wall Street estimates. Chase jumped 6 3/8, to $69 7/8, while BankAmerica rose 4 3/8, to $60 1/4, and First Union (another Investor's Guide pick) edged up 1 1/8, to $61 3/16. MANO A MANO.... In the clubby world of Wall Street analysts, it's not the normal practice for one analyst to try to shoot down another analyst's arguments. But then Amazon.com isn't a normal stock. On Wednesday, analyst Henry Blodget of Oppenheimer sent shares of the online bookseller soaring when he gave it a target price of $400. Thursday morning, though, Merrill Lynch analyst Jonathan Cohen put a pin in the balloon and slapped a rare "reduce" rating on the stock. Cohen, it should be noted, was one of the first analysts to warn a few years back that Netscape was overvalued. Not surprisingly, Amazon plunged on Cohen's warning, closing down 12 1/4, at $276 3/4. I don't know if Cohen is right but you've got to give him some boldness points. AMAZON MANIA, PART TWO.... During my chat on Yahoo! Tuesday night I had a bunch of queries from investors who wanted to play the Amazon phenom but were worried about the high-octane risk. Well, here's a thought: Amazon issued a zero-coupon bond last spring that's due in 2008 and carries a yield to maturity of about 10%. Morgan Stanley bond analyst David Allen points out that if Amazon meets the Street's expectations over the next few years, the bond's face amount could rise from its current $66 to the high $80s. "This is a pretty safe way to play the company, without all the downside risk," says Allen. Of course, you don't have all the upside of Amazon stock but a 10% yield is pretty tempting. Before you call your broker, here are two crucial caveats--if Amazon goes broke, goodbye investment. Second, as a zero-coupon, it won't start paying interest until 2003. Loose Change I'm not going to offer my personal opinions on the Clinton question (made that mistake back in January), except to say I'm tired of it. However, it's pretty obvious that if Congress would just drop the whole thing, stocks would rise sharply. And I bet many people on Wall Street think that's a good enough reason to let Slick Willie off, even if they won't say it out loud.... Why do people keep on buying shares of K-tel? I'm telling you, it's a sure loser.... My broker friend Elliot Scheier at Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. isn't buying into the Amazon mania. He prefers plain old Barnes & Noble, which he thinks could get a major boost when barnesandnoble.com eventually does its IPO.... Shares of Reuters rose 4 5/16, to $60 15/16, after an upgrade by Morgan Stanley.... Abby Cohen, the Goldman stategist (and late '90s icon), predicts the Dow will hit 9850 before the end of next year, a gain of 11.5%. Right on, Abby!... Thanks to everyone who e-mailed me regarding my trip to Culebra. I'll let you know how it goes. Talk Back to Street Life.... Why let Serwer, Amy, and Nelman have all the fun?! Post your comments and questions about today's column on our boards, located at fortune.com .