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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DWB who wrote (1253)	12/17/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 34857

Daniel, telecom people I know in Asia seem to think that China has already decided to not to expand the current CDMA networks much and go with a national GSM policy instead. The recent announcement that China is banning further mobile telecom joint ventures with foreigners is designed to foster rapid growth of Chinese GSM manufacturing and ultimately export industry. When industrial policy such as this is decided on, it usually sticks. China is not officially saying anything about planning an all-GSM future, because they do not want Charlene on their backs. However, next year's big planned GSM expansion contracts should make the point. And here is where the 3G debate becomes relevant. NTT-Docomo is taking a dim view on CDMA-compatible 3G solutions, because they would directly aid its competitors currently building IS-95 networks in Japan. And the Japanese now see all-GSM China as perhaps the most lucrative market for their own W-CDMA products. Put this together with the huge European GSM market and the North American GSM alliance that is pushing for W-CDMA in North America and the pressure to push through W-CDMA becomes considerable. No matter how fast Nokia has come up, if the W-CDMA debate breaks in its favor, there will be a sharp uptick. After that it is probably getting toppy for a while. If the W-CDMA really gets approved in its non-IS-95-compatible incarnation, there will probably be a sharp downtick in Qualcomm's price and a big boost in Ericsson's. I think this could be a great entry point to QCOM - their P/E ratio has already plummeted and the W-CDMA will not kill IS-95 in USA, Latin America or Korea; it's still going to hit that 20% global market share at some point among second generation standards. And that's a lot considering Qualcomm's size. I'm going to buy if the decision turns against QCOM and they drop below 45. Tero