To: T.K. Horeis who wrote (5314 ) 12/18/1998 4:40:00 AM From: JW@KSC Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9236
Re: "Jim, either you're prone to hyperbole or unrealistic.." JW@KSC ">>ADSL/VDSL will be around for the next 40 years. As will the 800 >>million POT's Lines in the world, and growing."The PC hasn't even been around 40 years and do you think anyone is still running 8086 chips hell there's probably very few people even running on 80386's anymore and there not even ten years old. Granted the telecom technology takes longer to change, but in 40 years we WILL have something new that won't even look like xDSL. Don't ya just love it when the fish are biting! <gg> Hi T.K. , Maybe the former CEO of Bell Atlantic is full of Hyperbole too. To quote Ray Smith '1996 " Some say DSL is an Interim Technology, and I agree, Interim for the next 40 years" Now I don't believe every crackpot or CEO with a cute comment, but Ray Smith is one of the highest regarded minds in the telco industry. OK! If you want to get technical about it I was off by 3 years, so 37 years, sorry. Damn! where did 1,080 days go?As for AWRE's current prospects, I think they are good, however I see it trading in a highly volatile range between 15-30 for the next year until we see wide deployment by the telcos. I see it taking off in June 99, if not before, June is when the standard will be finalized, and the Hype and Press will drive DSL stocks up IMO. Here is what happened the last time the DSL Hype hit the Wall and the Street, it began around Jan/Feb 96 and had one hell of a run though June 96, I was there ;^) In 5 Months: Numbers are approx. Westell $10 to $80 then Split 2:1 PAIR $15 to $120 then Split 2:1 Amati $6 to $36 Sweet Dreams are made of these, who am I to disagree, I traveled the World and the Seven Seas, Everybody's looking for Bandwidth! Today I see the same prices on the ADSL Stocks. Amati was bought by TXN in Dec 97. Don't count out TXN. Yes the price is high. DSP's are where the microprocessor was in 1984, only it's even bigger! TXN has 70% of the market...... 3 for 1 split has been approved... TXN Bought Harris Semiconductor, in case some don't know, Harris Semi Conductor had a Partnership with Orckit and is manufacturing VDSL Chips for Orckit. Harris Semiconductor is just 20 miles down the road here on the Space Coast. Happy Holidays to All I Want My DMT JW@KSC Disclaimer: Do your own DD, the above is JMHR (Just My Humble Ramblings)