To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (6442 ) 12/18/1998 2:39:00 PM From: JZGalt Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18928
For the others, maybe some equipment supplier or something that makes internet access better? Actually rather than trying to find the one or two internet plays that are likely to survive and thrive, I think this is the way to play the internet expansion as well as the telecommunications expansion taking place worldwide. We have talked about the communications chip stocks here before, but if you feel uncomfortable with that, you might move up the food chain toward the people that use the chips. Networking stocks as well as companies which provide hardware so we can connect faster and easier will be the winners as more and more emphasis is placed on connectivity. One possible area which is crying out for expansion is the proverbial "last mile" which is the piece of the net between you and high speed access. This is typically carried over copper wire via telephones right now, but inroads are being made in the cable network area. One company that seems uniquely positioned to benefit is ADCT. They provide broadband solutions to the home or small office as well as providing equipment to the CLEC's. If you want to play the area a bit further out in the network equipment suppliers, then ASND and CSCO are clear choices. CSCO is everyone's darling and continues to attract investors money. ASND has a tendency to shoot itself in the foot every now and then, but they do provide telecommunications and data networking infrastructure solutions. If I had to make a list of non-chip companies which would prosper it would be CSCO, ASND, ADCT, followed by FORE, COMS. Tom, I'd like to add one retailer to your list. Barnes and Noble (BKS) is eventually going to rival AMZN for internet book sales. As an affiliate, they provide much more in the way of information and tools to allow the website owner to direct sales their way. The deal with Bertlesmann is a good one and eventually we should see something like BKS challange AMZN's lofty p/e ratio. Either the p/e of BKS has to go up, or AMZN has to go down. Most likely it will be a mixture of those two outcomes. Also in the retailers you might want to consider ONSL. I use their website and find it to be easy to buy at auction and reliable if anything goes wrong (I had a damaged package over the summer). They are attracting bidders and the fraction of business the larger bidders are doing is growing. Also started to auction off vacations packages about two months ago and cloning the franchise to Japan a while back. Valuation on this stuff is nuts, but some of these are going to survive. One area you skipped was advertising on the internet. You might want to look into NetGravity (NETG) and DoubleClick (DCLK) as early advertising agency type stocks which help target and move "eyeballs" around the net. The ability to "count" is absolutely critical to advertising on the net and subsequent e-commerce. DCLK and NETG provide that ability. Finally you might consider e-commerce security. Merrill Lynch is hot on a company called Axent (AXNT). I'm sure there are others in this area (Checkpoint comes to mind). Outside of that there is a group called "Enterprise Software" which allows the transaction on the web to be keyed all the way back to the manufacturing process of the business. There is no one player here, but ORCL, ITWO, PSFT, SAP, IFMX, SYBS, NETA, etc. fall into this general area. ---- Dave