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To: Gary Burton who wrote (33160)	12/18/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Gary, This rig count is getting closer to all time lows it appears. Looks to fit with your EW theory and market read?? tampabayonline.net

To: Gary Burton who wrote (33160)	12/18/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Gary: Sure does look like a new low for OSX next week. I still see this thing following the pattern of the XAU last summer -- a final smash down through support followed by a powerful move up. I had hoped the triple bottom would hold, but that seems very unlikely now.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (33160)	12/20/1998 4:36:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Home - Yahoo! - Help Oil seen weakening as industry watches Iraq policy By Richard Mably LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Weak oil prices, currently testing 22 year lows, could drift even lower on Monday after a sustained U.S. and British military attack on major Middle East producer Iraq apparently left its petroleum exports undented. Western oil industry officials said initial assessments indicated that four days of air strikes aimed primarily at Iraqi military targets seemed to have had little direct impact on the Arab nation's oil export facilities. ''It's not possible to tell for sure so soon but, with the exception of the Basrah refinery, everything seems to be reasonably okay,'' said one official who is in regular contact with Baghdad. Exports ran as normal throughout, he added. ''Oil prices look set to go lower again on Monday,'' said Nauman Barakat of investment house Prudential Bache in New York. ''Without any disruption to the flow of oil from Iraq I think we'll be testing the lows again.'' Industry officials familiar with monitoring procedures under the United Nations oil-for-food exchange programme, said on Sunday that Iraqi oil liftings were running close to schedule from two exit points on the Gulf and in the Mediterranean. Liftings of southern Iraqi Basrah crude from the country's Gulf port of Mina al-Bakr had proved a little slow but no shipments had been cancelled, the official said. Industry analysts will now be watching for any signs of a change in heart in the West over United Nations sanctions on Iraq or the operation of the United Nations oil-for-food programme. Iraq's continued cooperation throughout the air strikes with the U.N. programme appeared to signal that Baghdad had no intention of providing fellow producers with relief from depressed oil prices by withdrawing from the deal. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is thought unlikely to want to reward Gulf Arab neighbours such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia with higher oil prices by stopping Iraqi oil sales, even though the U.N. controls his export revenues. Benchmark Brent blend crude futures in a glutted market closed at just $9.98 a barrel on Friday after wiping out a dollar price gain posted on Wednesday as Washington's intentions towards Iraq became apparent. Hardliners on Iraq the United States and Britain insisted on Sunday that eight-year-old sanctions will remain in place, leaving the U.N. to control Iraqi petroleum revenues. British Prime Minister Tony Blair said the next move was to further develop a ''policy of containment,'' and U.S. President Bill Clinton pledged his support for oil-for-food. For its part, Iraq said it would not now permit the return of U.N. weapons inspectors to the country. Iraqi Vice-President Taha Yassin Ramadan said that the U.N. Special Commission on the disarmament of Iraq was now ''behind us.'' Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations, Nizar Hamdoon, said on Friday that Iraq's goal for the lifting of sanctions might allow a reexamination of the role of UNSCOM. Diplomats said that without UNSCOM in Iraq the only option would be for ''long-range'' monitoring of the country's arms industry. But even in the unlikely scenario of an early lifting of sanctions the short-term impact on world oil markets would not be great. Iraq oil facilities, in disrepair after the Gulf War, are already producing at capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day, about 1.8 million of which goes for export. Iraqi output before the Gulf War was about 3.2 million bpd and with cash put aside by the U.N. for repairs, production next year is expected to again approach those levels. Only when the lifting of sanctions allows a ban on foreign investment to start opening up new Iraqi oilfields earmarked for French, Russian and Chinese companies will Baghdad be able move towards planned capacity of six million barrels a day. The only significant damage last week to oil installations appeared to be at the Basrah oil refinery. The U.S. said it targeted Iraq's the 126,000 barrel a day plant to stop smuggling of petroleum products. U.S. Defence Secretary William Cohen said the refinery came under a ''very limited'' attack. It was not known how much damage was sustained. Petroleum products are not exported under the U.N. deal. Washington has accused Baghdad of smuggling up to 100,000 bpd of crude and products in contravention of U.N. sanctions imposed in 1990 after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Related News Categories: politics, US Market News Help Copyright © 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. See our Important Disclaimers and Legal Information. Questions or Comments?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (33160)	12/20/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Gary, I see you're using Ewave. Here's my $.02 on crude, FWIW. Message 6571409 It's a little old, but the big picture hasn't changed much, IMO. It looks like we're still in wave 5 down off of the 12/96 high. Check out mt site at geocities.com the crude chart is geocities.com Feel free to comment or throw stones, your thoughts are appreciated. Talk to you later Regards, Frank

To: Gary Burton who wrote (33160)	12/21/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

The Turn Around is Near All cycles have bottoms including this one. The glut in crude will disappear in 1999 by a combination of two simple factors, further cuts in production and unexpected increases in demand. The Oil Service Sector (OSX) will turn first, signalling crude price recovery. With only a few days of modest tax selling remaining the prime motivator of further price erosion will have been removed. GIFI, my favorite OSX indicator closed @ 8 ¼ Friday on 25,700 shares traded, demonstrating that most investors that wanted to sell have already done so. Currently 8 on 2k shares. Speculation of a world wide recession next year have been verblown but have had the effect of pumping 100s of billions into econonmies to stem the recessionary slide. Japan is now contemplating a 300 billion dollar stimulation package to get that economy back on track. Milton Friedman said it best. He said to avoid depression, "PRINT MONEY", precisely what is being done on a significant scale. Those who have hung in or who are reentering after taking losses will see their portfolios restored and perhaps multiplied beyond previous levels. It is not a question of "IF"; but, "WHEN". I believe we are on the threshhold of the "WHEN". During 1999 I FORECAST the OSX into three digits, probably sooner than most expect or anticipate. I see 60 or better within ninety days and I wouldn't be surprised if it occurs next month. I am now only 10% cash for further bargain shopping. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all SargeK