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To: HG who wrote (16101)12/19/1998 3:00:00 AM
From: Dave Mansfield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
Happy Girl you're going to have to help me with the following statement.

>>Thoughtful post, as usual. Lot of agreement there except I don't feel the sector will plummet just by remaining even. As indicated previously, I see growth plateauing between 250-350 and thereafter a steady climb - so much like CSCO or MSFT.<<

The comment about growth plateauing between 250-350. What growth are you speaking of? I was speaking of growth in revenue and earnings. Remember this has a P/E ration in excess of 200. And the P/S ratio is just as ridiculous. To justify these lofty valuations, they need to grow earnings and sales in the triple digit area for years to come. What do the numbers of 250-350 have to do with growing revenues and growing earnings? Do you not believe that such P/E and P/S ratios that they currently have need to be supported by spectacular growth in revenues and earnings? Look at the growth in both that CSCO and MSFT accomplished to support their pricing. Look at their P/E and P/S ratios. Some time ago I posted MSFT's historical P/E ranges over the past several years, and they were nowhere near as lofty as YHOO's. And MSFT is in a business that is a near monopoly. YHOO meanwhile is in a business with hardly any barriers to entry and plenty of competitors as we speak:

snap.com
theglobe.com
msn.com
excite.com
lycos.com
altavista.com
hotbot.com
go.com
800go.com
wherethehell.com

I guess the logic escapes me. If they cannot grow revenues and earnings in the triple digit area for at least 5 more years I can't see how today's pricing can be supported. So if the sector remains even in these areas, how can they not plummet?

Dave



To: HG who wrote (16101)12/20/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: trouthead  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
Welcoe back h_g,

Been reading this morning about ad revenue and it's declining future. it ocurred to me that one of the problems internet ads have is their static nature. They move very little and have no sound. What effect do you and the others think broadband connectivities, that are sure to come in the next 3 years, will have on the effectiveness of these ads. They will certainly become more eye catching and entertaining. There are certain commercials on TV that I watch because they are fun. If there was an ad on the net that was a real crack up or especially creative I would watch it a couple of times and then email all my friends about it. To me this inductry and it's potential revenues are in their infancy.

jb