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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (4346)	12/22/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8218

This insider selling debate is a no win argument full of differing opinions but it is an interesting issue to follow. I would agree with your posts that one way to get destroyed is to be financially self- sufficient but have most of these assets in one issue and suffer a draconian downdraft. When that happens its back to work. Anyway, my two cents are somewhat different than the other posts. I believe that the second half of 99 will be potentially a disaster for the IT industry and even a diversified company like IBM will have problems. I posted at length on this topic back in October. I think that this quarter and first two in 99 will be record setting and the second half of 99 will significantly underperform. I know IBM executives think that this is true and their business plans and models make this plain for all to see who care to dig into the information that is available. So if you have a lot of options do you wait until May or do you start to unload now? I would unload some now, some in the first quarter and then again in the second quarter prior to any "sinking ship" scenario. I would actually see some insider buying during the 4th quarter 99 for a number of reasons. An executive who is an insider is rather restricted on what they can do so they never can optimize their trades and always give some on the way up. If there is any sin it should be that they are too early not too late. So I dont get labeled a bear again my "cyrstal ball" sees a split with 200 prior to the split adjustment (or 100 thereafter). IBM will exceed estimates for the next three quarters beating the street. They will continue the buyback program to insure the numbers are made. The first quarter could have spectacular year over year comparisons and could be a major catalyst driving the stock to continuing new records. The real investor issue is how to manage the second half and if it is problematic how to rebalance your portfolio so that your capital preservation strategies work. I still own IBM but have also moved some of this money around where it may do better. If IBM had any kind of correction I would probably reposition back to owning more again. By next August I may be in all cash again. Who knows what will come our way. But I think this time the insider selling was heavier and more calculating and signifies some concern that was not evident the past few years.