Jim:
Thanks for joining in. Sound like some sound suggestions to me, and I look forward to additional commentary.
Some really uninformed stuff which I wouldn't mind having shot down (I don't have a shy, retiring personality, and some think that I'm giving verdicts when I question a company's direction..... I'm looking for investments, and would love for someone to counter me....... that's how I invested in Coulter, for example..... I mildly criticized the company, and V1 and Pseudo Biologist put me on the correct track).......
GENZL..... dirt cheap, but a patient-specific business plan has never thrived, to my knowledge. I've had knee surgery twice however (soccer), and believe that further clinical data and experience will give this one a chance. What else are they working on besides Carticel?
CTII..... Irv Weissman hired me at SyStemix. Despite this, he is one of the smartest humans to ever walk this earth, and he recently bought over 50K shares. I also know the V.P., Stem Cell Program from SyStemix, and she's dynamite. One of the hardest workers I've ever seen, and focused on bringing science to the clinic. OTOH, Richard Rose was helping to guide Cytel into nonproductive areas at a time when Cytel employees were pulling one of biotech's all-time "bail from equity positions" act. The science.... I'm not a fan of using encapsulated allogeneic (from another human) cells as therapeutics. I'd love to be proven as naive on this front, as it would be a direct route to a virtual cure for a number of diseases. However, I feel that allogeneic cells will lead to a state of chronic inflammation, even when separated from the host by a membrane. Since lineage-specific stem cells will differentiate, their proposed use is also problematic, IMO, unless they can be isolated on a patient-specific basis (see hesitancy above with respect to GENZL). But, again, this is an uninformed first-blush look. Do they still own 25% of Modex? Does anyone know if Modex is doing anything beyond encapsulation stuff?
I feel that patents for lineage-specific stem cells will prove to be valuable, particularly from a functional genomics stand. However, I don't feel that this value will derive near-term, and I therefore feel that CTII is going to get picked off for little or no premium to the shareholder. If I'm wrong about any of the above or if Modex is working on anything hot, CTII could explode. Again, I hope that someone counters this argument and that we can all get stinking rich while munching on CTII shares.
SANG..... Jim follows them closely. Doesn't it boil down to patient and physician acceptance of the liquid formulation? I am not a fan of Thymocrud. Lots of insider sales of late, including one by Pouletty. Does anyone know if the anti-LFA-1 acquired from Pasteur Merieux Connaught is humanized? Good thought, near-term, Jim, thanks. Long-term, I feel that this business plan needs to evolve fast, perhaps faster than it can. Biogen, Idec, Medimmune, Novartis and several other companies are taking good shots at SANG's bread and butter. Pouletty has been very, very clever, however, and I've passed "bird in hand" for "pie in sky" before. ;-)
LGND.... I've owned and followed them for ages. I was also a shareholder in Glycomed, and successfully played that arbitrage for a final yield of about $0.05/hour of effort. Great science, but Robinson has grown the company at the expense of his shareholders. It was obvious that this was his path in early '96 when I bailed. I've played it since, often, and successfully for short-term blips. Robinson is screwing his shareholders, so I feel no reason to do anything other than take the money of those that follow him. I recently tried an option play (calls), and lost money on LGND for the first time.
There will come a time when Robinson decides to focus and return something to the shareholders. I haven't seen it arrive yet, but I'd love to have someone convince me that I'm wrong.
Great suggestions, Jim, and I look forward to additional comments and counter-arguments.
Rick |
