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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed who wrote (13345)	12/20/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Ed, Regarding your prediction of "Next Monday, stock will shoot up sharply!!!!!!!", I will be happy if my MSFT holding keeps moving higher but Next Monday, i.e. 12/21/98, MSFT will be down. Possibly to 136 at the closing. Regarding money flowing back from internet to msft, csco etc,, we should relaize that there is no money to flow. Imagine a widget that I want to sell. tech2000 pays 1million for it. Then say Lindy Bill comes along and pays tech2000 10 million for it. Then Ed thinks this think is something he must own and pays 100million to LindyBill. Finally comes Johnd who is now very greedy and wants to grab it before hits 10 billion and thus buys that widget from Ed for 1 Billion. Once JohnD bought, people finally realize that this widget isn't really that valuable and its price crashes all the way to .5 million. Johnd, who had gone on the Hawaii vacation, now wanting to sell his widget can't find any buyer except Sonki, who is willing to pay only .5 million. There are no other buyers. So where is that 1 Billion money market cap JohnD paid flowing into? Well, IRS probably has 30% of it, the rest are distributed among a few short term hot hands. Will they invest in long term oriented holdings. The current internet boom is even more complicated because it is driven by short sellers having to cover on a daily basis. There is no wealth created in a boom like this one. What ever wealth shuffled will move to tail end short seller sof internet stocks and they will continue to be primarily short sellers and that doesn't help. Once again, I expect Monday the Dow to be down and the NASDAQ to be down bigger percentage. MSFT to close down, may be around at 136 or so. The best bet for Monday is short at 138, then cover at 135 or so on Monday or Tuesday. Johnd