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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (16241)	12/20/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 18691

Dale, I think that most of these internet companies will report fantastic revenue growth for Q4 due to the Christmas online shopping frenzy. However, it will be very hard for these companies to post strong Q over Q revenue growth for first Q 99. Even likely that those numbers are negative. That should be a decent time to accumulate some short or put positions. Strongly agree with you that when the Q4 98 numbers kick in, shorts in issues with tight float will get margin calls within days, maybe even hours. good luck, larry!

To: Dale Baker who wrote (16241)	12/21/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

What happens if AMZN announces revenues up 30% and losses also up 30%? IOW, what if the truth is that they lose money on every dollar of revenue, and the losses DON'T go away just because revenue grows. None of these stocks have proven that that's not the case. And most of them have HIGHLY variable costs. IOW, costs increase in very close relationship with revenues. That is the disadvantage of a low-overhead business, lower returns to scale. Not hold stocks either way. It'll be interesting to see how they do and how they spin it... mg