To: marc chatman who wrote (33236 ) 12/21/1998 12:18:00 AM From: nicewatch Respond to
Marc,
At the conclusion of a bear market cycle, such as we've seen in crude and the OSX, does E-wave say a bull market cycle will follow? Or can there be a new bear cycle, or something else such as a narrow trading range?
Not specifically... but sort of, imo. There should be an eventual increase in prices once this bear market terminates; however, a more accurate thing to say would be that prices will stop going down. In looking at lots of history on a bunch of commodity markets, I've noticed lots of protracted bear markets are followed by sizeable bull moves, not before lengthy sideways accumulation periods, or a "narrow trading range" as you referred to it. I dunno whether this oil bear is culminated in a steep V type move, or just dies out, and accumulation starts.... I wish I were that smart. <g>
Ewave can be good at alerting one to the completion of a move... but the thing that makes it an art rather than a science, imo, is that when you look forward, you only have a most likely scenario(s) of what should follow. With any type of predictive analysis, one has to be very flexible in applying it, and not get married to an opinion, or a scenario of what the market should or shouldn't do. Usually,-for me at least- reality is different from expectations... at the same time, everything works out perfectly in hindsight.<G> Consequently, I try to come up with a best guess of what I think is going on, but ultimately, I have to let prices do the talking... for me, ewave used well acts as a roadmap, of sorts, for the markets.
I'm curious whether this is just the normal movement following an E-wave bear move, or whether there is something specific you see.
An upmove of some sort would be normal after this bear market, imo. This is based in part on ewave and also on other TA. It's just my hunch... I've no insights into the fundamentals of the oil business. Also, there is an up seasonal from February to late April-early May for Crude futures. I hope I answered your questions, if not.. let me know. Talk to you later
Regards,
Frank
