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Stock Analysis of Cognicase Inc.
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Cognicase Inc. from VectorVest
ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Cognicase Inc. is COGIF. COGIF is
traded on the NASDAQ.
PRICE: COGIF closed on 12/18/1998 at $18.40 per share.
VALUE: COGIF has a Value of $39.1 per share. Value is the foundation
of the VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth.
Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments,
dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current interest and
inflation rates also play an important role in the computation of Value.
When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest
rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock's
Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): COGIF has an RV of 1.73. On a scale of 0.00 to
2.00, an RV of 1.73 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term price
appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment in
AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have attractive
upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00 when its Value
is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted
earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases, however, a stock's
RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This
happens when a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance
and an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is
currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future
earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This information is very
useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price
appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high
growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve
above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): COGIF has an RS rating of 0.65. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 0.65 is poor. VectorVest looks at safety from the
viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company)
rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the
company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating
performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the
key factors used in the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity
ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are
also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and
more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less
than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): COGIF has an RT rating of 1.56. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 1.56 is excellent. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term
price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of
a stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects
the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock's Price has
established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the
short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should
the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point.
When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price
high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the
stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a
downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): COGIF has a VST-Vector rating of 1.36. On a scale
of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.36 is excellent. VST-Vector solves the
dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV
values often have low RS values, or stocks withlow RV and RS values
have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations of
Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles
this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking
every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector
have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones
to own for above average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): COGIF has a GRT of 56 % per year. This is
excellent. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per
year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very
carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the
GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly, cease to
increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): COGIF has a Buy recommendation. REC
reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working
together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe,
undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky,
overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is
approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's
price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are
favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from receiving "S"
RECs.
STOP-PRICE: COGIF has a Stop-Price of 17.40 per share. This is 1.00
or 5.4% belowits current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000
stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price
for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving
averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each stock's
fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if
its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is
below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): COGIF does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on
annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement.
Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally
are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): COGIF has a DY of 0 percent. This is above the
current market average of percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is
expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): COGIF has an EY of 6.21%. This is above the
current market average of %. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER
SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): COGIF has an EPS of $1.14 per share. EPS
stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines
this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and
traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): COGIF has a P/E ratio of 16.1. This
ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): COGIF has a GPE of 3.48. This ratio
suggests that This ratio suggests that COGIFis undervalued. Growth to P/E
ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings
Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to
be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest
believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of
1.73 for COGIFis excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): COGIF has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a
DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends
will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable
future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 areabove
average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): COGIF does not pay a dividend. All stocks in
the VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as having Low,
Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50
are above average in safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW or
MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are below average in
safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): COGIF has a DG of 0 percent per year.
Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's
historical financial performance and the board's current outlook on the
future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): COGIF has a
YSG-Vector of 0. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0 is
very poor. VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and
GROWTH into a single parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison
of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values
have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These
are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term
growth.
VOL(100)s: COGIF traded 12200 shares on 12/18/1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: COGIF has an Average Volume of 39244. Average
Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by
VectorVest.
% VOL: COGIF had a Volume change of -68.9% from its 50 day moving
average volume.
OPEN: COGIF opened trading at $18.25 per share on 12/18/1998.
HIGH: COGIF traded at a high of $18.63 per share on 12/18/1998.
LOW: COGIF traded at a low of $18.19 per share on 12/18/1998.
CLOSE: COGIF Closed trading at $18.40 per share on 12/18/1998.
% PRC: COGIF showed a Price change of 0.6% from the prior day's
closing price.
INDUSTRY: COGIFhas been assigned to the Software (Business) Group.
VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business
Sectors.
COGIF has well below average safety with well above average upside
potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give well above average,
inconsistent returns over the long term. |
