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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (10825)	12/21/1998 5:39:00 PM
From: F Robert Simms	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Didn't you say your models were on a buy? Now you know why I loose money. <ggg> Seriously since my best models were oscillating, short on Friday's close and long on today's and my secondary models were short. My secondary models are pretty good too. I expected a lot of volatility. I also didn't expect it to break today. With the quick run up I expected it to fall back quickly where I would get a long position to keep. I bought the SPY to ride on the way down. It didn't fall back or go up to close my stop loss on the SPY where I would reverse. The OEX put options were very cheap in the afternoon. I had little to risk and much to gain if it fell back so I bought the option. I could have a close stop on the put since we already were at the point that if it went up any at all it would be a breakout. Also Murrey of Murrey Math say's you should always short a retest. I guess this is because you can have such a tight stop. One morel consideration was that we have a 5 point expanding sell since November peak. The final consideration is that my best models were GRNN and I still don't completely trust GRNN's. Best Wishes, Bob