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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (16315)	12/21/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Hi larry, I too grabbed some dell calls today. It looks to me that dell is beginning to explode at last. I think 100 looks doable by earnings time, assuming as always that they beat the numbers by at least 2 cents. I also like tglo but missed picking some up. Looks like the etailers are where the action is right now. Nice work on onsl I missed that. I wish I had bought a bigger position in dell but you can't look back, I guess. I don't see any crash happening until after earnings wind up in Feb so we have a solid 6-8 weeks to just go crazy here and crash any numbskull stupid enough to be short here. I'm not referring to the zitl types shorts but those people shorting known name stocks like amzn yhoo onsl dell csco etc. I see a great shorting opportunity arriving by the end of Feb beginning of March. Amzn and yhoo could be 500 then and easily fall 100 points, likewise dell csco etc probably will be due for a decent pullback by then. Let's keep in touch and get ready for it when it comes, but for the next month and a half, all the easy money is clearly going to be made going long. I know several conservative dow type investors who are now buying only internet and big tech stocks. I think that is what 1999 is going to be all about. The dow maybe goes up 10-15% and the Nasdaq 100 50%. And with Greenspan in an easing mode and us having had a serious correction in the fall I see zero danger of any correction coming anytime before Feb so it's bombs away. I think this Clinton nonsense will probably end shortly as well as even conservatives don't want to drag it out much more. That's probably good for another 5% rally. How high do you see dell getting by earnings? Take care, Space PS Note added after posting: larry do you have any idea when dell will announce a stock split? I know you have followed the stock for a long time but I'm new to it. Do they like splitting it at 100?

To: larry who wrote (16315)	12/21/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Larry, I think that csco, msft, and dell will also suffer when the bubble bursts, but not as much as the Internets. Speaking of csco, do you really believe that it deserves a market cap almost as large as IBM? Check these figures: IBM market cap $162 billion revenue 80 billion earnings 6 billion CSCO market cap $150 billion revenue 9 billion earnings 1.5 billion Either CSCO is over valued or IBM is very cheap. I think IBM is over valued and CSCO is a bubble stock.