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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (24747)	12/21/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

<<No disagreement from me The problem is that monopoly not freedom is the future in this industry. Novell should consider a merger NOW!!! In the end it will save jobs.>> I disagree. At the start of the 80s, AT&T had a monopoly on Long Distance, Local Service, Equipment, and Service and Consulting. Effectively 100%. IBM didn't have close to the lock AT&T had. Businesses paid through the nose for long distance. If they needed lines, they got them when AT&T was ready to give them. There were no contract negotiations. Prices never moved. There was no urgency to innovate (why bother ?). The government rightfully dissolved AT&Ts monopoly (but not AT&T), and started the communications revolution that we all benefit from today. My company was just offered 4.5 cent per minute long distance, with T-1 access fees waived, with only a one year contract. Rates will go much lower, performance will go much higher. We have deals from 4 other companies on the table. Does anyone think we would be where we are if AT&T was still the only option ? Look at the benefits this country has realized due to the break up of that monopoly. If this had not been done, we would never have know what we were missing (similar to the desktop environment today, what could we have with 3 competitors developing to open standards). The government has the right idea with the MSFT trial, even though they are attacking MSFT in a most pitiful manner. They may not get it right this time, but they will come back again. The crux of MSFT's power is not bundling a browser, the root is in the totally restrictive licensing agreement forced on the PC OEM's by MSFT. This allows them to give away everything else. They are not great marketers, they just look like they are. MSFT did not get 90% share because consumers wanted them, to date, they have had only one choice ! Try to order a PC from a major OEM with no operating system loaded. Today's announcement between Dell and AOL is a great example that monopoly will not be the rule in this industry. This announcement would never have happened were it not for the climate created by the public airing of MSFT's anti-competitive behavior, behavior illuminated by many different sources. I think Linux will be an option soon on PC's from OEMs due to this first shot across the bow from DOJ. Its not a great alternative, but it is a start, and it will get better. The DOJ may not get a clean win this time, but they are starting to degrade the weapon that has been used to stifle competition in the software business for years, to our detriment. So I do not think monopoly is the future in this industry at all. I think that after Y2K, the change in the balance of power in this industry is going to come much quicker than it did in AT&T's case. I don't see how a failure to merge is going to cost Novell jobs. The speed and bandwidth that is rushing to the edge of the network is far outstripping the development curve of Active Directory and Windows Server whatever. Can you fully utilize the the bandwidth increased 16 fold by DWDM if it terminates into a Windows NT network? Unless MSFT has a skunkworks somewhere with a secret weapon, they are going to have to get ready to share some of the wealth, whether they want to or not. Monopoly is not the future in this industry, the Internet will not let it be. jww