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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2547)	12/21/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MGJ, That indeed is a tough call. However, looking below the surface one can see that the average gain for the 50 largest S&Pers is in the mid-30 percentile if I am not mistaken. The average for the remaining 450 stocks is about 2%. (KIM that these #'s are coming from memory, so they may be off). That said, I believe that the focus on the Nifty 50 is leaving many stones unturned, and one can still get value if they look hard enough. You simply need a stomach to ride out the waves. Buying value means buying a stock nobody else considers of any value so it may be some time until others recognize what you already know. BK

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2547)	12/21/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

RE: "Why would one want to be 100% fully invested in this market when we are at 95.33% of possibly the upper range the S and P will see in 1999? ... I am currently 70% in equities-30% in cash and bonds." Each of us must answer that question based on individual circumstances. Several possible answers (not necessarily MY answer, mind you) include: 1. There is no other compelling investment vehicle. Why choose to accept 4 to 5% in a money market? The return from your example would be 4.67% capital gains plus 1.7% dividends = 6.4%. 2. I don't want to sell and pay 20%+ of the profits to the government as capital gains tax? So what if the market moves sideways for a while? If I don't need the money now, why should I pay the tax now? 3. Interest rates are falling and inflation is just about dead. Historically, the market has performed well in periods of falling interest rates and low inflation. 4. The earnings could surprise on the upside. This could result in a higher price for a given P/E. It could also cause P/E multiple expansion. Contrary to popular opinion, I think that an asset allocation of 70% equities:30% fixed is somewhat aggressive. If you feel uncomfortable, move to a lower equity percentage. Best wishes, I2

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2547)	12/22/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Lars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans, >>> Why would one want to be 100% fully invested in this market when we are at 95.33% of possibly the upper range the S and P will see in 1999? >>> I am glad you are asking these questions. I wish I had the answers. I wonder to what extent this madness will continue. Right now I believe we will see more of a move to the upside in first quarter 99. After that, at this point, I seriously believe we will be on a roller coaster with some serious moves to the downside. >>> Or maybe a better question would be why would one want to be fully invested in the first half of 1999 presumably when investors are not looking at year 2000 projected earnings this early in the year? >>> I think that a person should seriously contemplate their positions. It is a time to be prudent. I have been very cautious as of late. The only company I know of right now that is literally screaming buy me, imho is Berkshire Hathaway. There are some other attractive values out there but many are outside my circle of competence.