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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Malloy who wrote (13439)	12/22/1998 4:36:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Brain, Ed: Both of you seem to think we msft could hit 600 by Jan 2001 or increase 4.5x from today in 2 years. I need to know how much of confidance do you guys have on this target if you were to bet your own money. I and a few friends are planning to jointly invest 214,000 into the Jan 2001 strike 170 LEAPs on microsoft The problem that we have is even if microsoft doubled its EPS to 4.00 from curent 2.00, in the next 2 years, if the overall market conditions lead to a 48 PE for MSFT, we won't make any money and if the PE by that tiem were 43 or so, we will loose all of our principal. While recognizign that no one can predict the future that well, please give me your confiedance levels on MSFT trading at following levels by Jan 2001 option expiration. Conifdance can be 1-100 scale 160 180 200 250 300 600 example: 100 100% 600 1% thanks johnd