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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (2608)12/22/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
LG Will DO ; Here is anther angle of looking at the DOW,
While it has the most public mind set impact on the market,
few people realize it does not have the most intrinsic impact,
that is the DOW itself has to adjust to the heavy derivative
trading in the OEX..and THE SPX..thoes stocks in the DOW that
are also in the OEX have a strategic advantage.
THe NDX is what has taken the over all market UP, and as it
has the S&P with it, so the bigger caps in the S&P had to
be bought more, even though the Dow does not have any NDX
stocks it does have S&P and OEX stocks that are effected by
the NDX..it's a mess to explain. <G>
--------------------
Any way for a look at the angle of how the cap size
has been going, ( thanks to the run up in the SPX )
Note the Dow gains are definately toward the big caps,
while it's loses are more in the smaller ones.
Symbol Last Trade Trade Date Gain Mkt Cap
^DJI 12:23PM 9002.24 8-Dec-98 -$0.00 -0.29% N/A
DIA 12:03PM 90 1/32 8-Dec-98 -$0.00 -0.31% N/A
GE 12:03PM 98 1/4 8-Dec-98 $97.95 +8.66% 321.1B
MRK 12:03PM 145 15/16 8-Dec-98 -$58.15 -8.04% 173.8B
XON 12:03PM 75 3/8 8-Dec-98 $20.32 +2.99% 183.3B
WMT 12:03PM 78 13/16 8-Dec-98 $24.24 +3.70% 175.2B
KO 12:03PM 67 7/16 8-Dec-98 -$11.26 -1.74% 166.2B
IBM 12:03PM 177 5/8 8-Dec-98 $33.31 +5.61% 163.9B
MO 12:03PM 53 3/16 8-Dec-98 -$12.23 -2.41% 129.5B
T 12:03PM 73 13/16 8-Dec-98 $45.71 +10.17% 129.4B
PG 12:03PM 88 7/8 8-Dec-98 $10.80 +2.45% 117.9B
C 12:03PM 50 3/4 8-Dec-98 $19.61 +4.64% 115.3B
JNJ 12:03PM 77 11/16 8-Dec-98 -$9.64 -2.35% 104.5B
HWP 12:03PM 65 7/8 8-Dec-98 -$1.49 -0.57% 68.320B
DIS 12:03PM 30 9/16 8-Dec-98 -$11.27 -4.49% 62.678B
DD 12:03PM 54 1/2 8-Dec-98 -$1.64 -0.69% 61.359B
CHV 12:01PM 84 1/8 8-Dec-98 $4.21 +2.04% 54.884B
MCD 12:03PM 77 8-Dec-98 $14.09 +7.60% 52.095B
GM 12:03PM 74 8-Dec-98 $12.02 +6.95% 48.431B
AXP 12:03PM 101 3/4 8-Dec-98 $8.22 +4.90% 46.000B
BA 12:03PM 31 15/16 8-Dec-98 -$9.56 -7.27% 31.910B
MMM 12:03PM 70 1/16 8-Dec-98 -$12.04 -10.04% 28.120B
ALD 12:03PM 42 1/4 8-Dec-98 -$3.49 -3.71% 23.662B
UTX 12:01PM 104 7/16 8-Dec-98 -$0.91 -1.01% 23.585B
EK 12:02PM 73 3/16 8-Dec-98 -$0.00 -0.00% 23.709B
JPM 12:03PM 102 8-Dec-98 -$3.06 -4.28% 17.832B
CAT 12:03PM 41 15/16 8-Dec-98 -$9.25 -13.87% 15.043B
S 12:03PM 41 3/8 8-Dec-98 $0.18 +0.30% 15.851B
AA 12:00PM 69 11/16 8-Dec-98 -$3.41 -6.54% 12.793B
IP 12:02PM 42 13/16 8-Dec-98 $0.00 +0.01% 13.157B
GT 12:02PM 50 3/8 8-Dec-98 -$3.45 -10.25% 7.853B
UK 12:02PM 40 1/4 8-Dec-98 -$0.89 -4.17% 5.349B
$138.93+1.54%
-----------------------
The above is CAP weghted the below is price weighted
( but not adjusted since the 8th ) my spread sheet does
adjust them but it don't paste good in SI.
I would have to save it as a .csv and all to paste it in.
-----------------------
Note the break over at about 100B cap, and the damage done
once you drop to about 30 B, it's clear the over 100B have
held her.
-----------------
Symbol Last Trade Trade Date Gain Mkt Cap
^DJI 12:39PM 9007.39 8-Dec-98 -$0.00 -0.23% N/A
DIA 12:18PM 90 8-Dec-98 -$0.00 N/A N/A
GE 12:19PM 98 8-Dec-98 $31.23 +8.38% 320.2B
MRK 12:19PM 146 3/4 8-Dec-98 -$49.19 -7.52% 174.8B
XON 12:18PM 75 1/8 8-Dec-98 $7.97 +2.64% 182.6B
WMT 12:19PM 78 13/16 8-Dec-98 $11.59 +3.70% 175.2B
KO 12:19PM 67 5/16 8-Dec-98 -$5.43 -1.92% 165.9B
IBM 12:19PM 177 3/4 8-Dec-98 $39.39 +5.68% 164.0B
MO 12:19PM 53 3/16 8-Dec-98 -$5.41 -2.41% 129.5B
T 12:19PM 73 5/8 8-Dec-98 $27.30 +9.89% 129.1B
PG 12:19PM 89 1/2 8-Dec-98 $11.33 +3.17% 118.8B
C 12:19PM 50 11/16 8-Dec-98 $9.01 +4.51% 115.2B
JNJ 12:19PM 77 1/2 8-Dec-98 -$8.49 -2.59% 104.2B
HWP 12:19PM 65 15/16 8-Dec-98 -$1.29 -0.47% 68.385B
DIS 12:19PM 30 3/8 8-Dec-98 -$6.69 -5.08% 62.293B
DD 12:19PM 54 5/16 8-Dec-98 -$2.34 -1.03% 61.148B
CHV 12:18PM 84 8-Dec-98 $6.43 +1.89% 54.802B
MCD 12:18PM 76 7/8 8-Dec-98 $21.90 +7.43% 52.010B
GM 12:18PM 74 8-Dec-98 $19.82 +6.95% 48.431B
AXP 12:18PM 101 13/16 8-Dec-98 $19.83 +4.96% 46.028B
BA 12:18PM 31 13/16 8-Dec-98 -$10.83 -7.63% 31.785B
MMM 12:18PM 70 8-Dec-98 -$32.47 -10.12% 28.095B
ALD 12:18PM 42 5/16 8-Dec-98 -$6.46 -3.57% 23.697B
UTX 12:14PM 104 3/16 8-Dec-98 -$5.41 -1.24% 23.528B
EK 12:19PM 73 3/8 8-Dec-98 $0.76 +0.25% 23.770B
JPM 12:17PM 102 1/4 8-Dec-98 -$17.76 -4.04% 17.875B
CAT 12:19PM 41 13/16 8-Dec-98 -$28.34 -14.13% 14.998B
S 12:18PM 41 5/16 8-Dec-98 $0.26 +0.15% 15.827B
AA 12:19PM 69 11/16 8-Dec-98 -$20.07 -6.54% 12.793B
IP 12:18PM 42 11/16 8-Dec-98 -$0.50 -0.29% 13.118B
GT 12:19PM 50 3/8 8-Dec-98 -$23.71 -10.25% 7.853B
UK 12:17PM 40 1/4 8-Dec-98 -$7.21 -4.17% 5.349B
-$24.78-0.27%
-------------------------
BTW while this is not good or real bullish, it's also not
real bad, as the BIG caps hold the liquid,
BIG DROPS HAPPEN AFTER THE SMALL CAPS RUN UP HARD, as
profit taken in them tends to drop her real fast, as they
are not as liquid..also if you see the smaller ones start
making gains..the DOW can shoot up fast, as it just takes
less volume to move the smaller ones..yet dollar for dollar
their moves effect what the index tells us just as much as
the moves of the BIG caps.. in short the volatility in the
DOW is effected more by what the under 50B caps do
( less float )..a $1 price move in UK, does the same thing to the
dow index we see ; as a $1 price move in GE.
Jim




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