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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	12/22/1998 6:48:00 PM
From: Graystone	Respond to of 3543

I have not, I just wish. <eom>

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	12/22/1998 7:24:00 PM
From: Graystone	Respond to of 3543

A Weighted Index or So if Amazon hits a $1000.00 Nobody wins ? Index shows total for today's close = 1,126 & 1/4. How about providing a weighted index started at a specific date and time. Might make it easier don't you think ?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	12/22/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: Don Pueblo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3543

1.) Well, I see Roger Babb has entered, so I guess I will too. You can figure out how to handle it if I win. I think the deal is gonna go down starting February 6, 1999. I hope that's a weekday. I think there will be a couple of reasons, A), bad corporate earnings; second, Y2K snafu; and third, TA, which will drive the stocks even lower when Mr. Public suddenly realizes he has become not only the victim of the greatest short squeeze ever seen, but The Actual Greatest Fool. I think the actual start of the Big Move Down will be precipitated by an analyst (don't know which one) that realizes his idea about one or two of these contest stocks was Kinda Way Wrong. He will see that his idea about revenues/earnings was...not quite right, and he will Adjust Downwards, (hopefully after the firm he works for or presides over has managed to blow out of their stock). This may be just prior, or just after, a Big Snafu on the Internet. I think the snafu will start because a router or a switch will shut down, causing another router/switch to shut down, causing a Big Provider to shut down. Kinda like that T/CSCO deal last year, only way, way worse. It will be blamed on the "Y2K problem", and not a Bad Router/Switch, but that will be after the carnage. The TAheads will see the TAsignals, and whammo. Toast. Eeyup. BAWK!

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	12/22/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: Ice Cube	Respond to of 3543

Auric, great thread.... O.K., I see it sooner rather than later.... This thing is out of control..... January 15, 1999 it starts..... One of these stocks takes a hit and all of a sudden you will have every analyst on the street "re-valuing" these stocks way back down and crash it happens like a thief in the night. It will make "Marlboro Monday" (remember Philip Morris a few years back?) seem like a picnic. One mistake by any one of these stocks and the fat lady starts singing. I t will take an "event" to make the turn, just as it does on any market or sector change.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	12/26/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: HiSpeed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Is there a date when the contest officially ends? tia

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (63)	1/5/1999 5:40:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Auric, not being a day trader I am going to have to take a longer view of this which appears to be unique based upon the other posts. So here's my guesses. 1. Though I am not sure whether it is the index that has to go down or all of the stocks within the index simutaneously, either way it won't happen until August 1999. There is simply too much money that will flow into the market over the next number of months to support everything including the Internet stocks. Then during the summer there will be a wall of worry to climb as the Y2K issue gets closer. The fact is that the first half of 99 will be fabulous for tech stocks as companies buy ahead to get software and hardware installed and the services needed to assist in that effort. As the second quarter earnings come out there will be a period of relief but that will be shortlived as tech companies warn that the second half will be dismal with no possibility of beating 1998 second half numbers. Customers will have begun the "data center freezes" to insure that their operating environments are bug free going into the millenium. It will be at this "moment of truth" where investors will finally realize that the revenue/earnings momentum will reverse itself and the selloffs will begin. Actually, it wont be the Internet stocks that bring down the market but a market collapse that will bring down the Internet stocks and every other tech stock too. My first date is August 16th. 2. My second date is August 23rd. Same scenario as above. 3. My third date is August 30th. Same scenario as above. Auric, thanks for the contest.