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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27398)	12/23/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

put 2 and 2 together and one can infer that the channels are being stuffed Sounds an awful lot like last year's war to me. Perhaps, a forward look would give a different view. i.e. the channel was stuffed; it's now cleared after all the fire sales; the direct models are now pulling chip content as required; INTC and MSFT are showing the affect of this renewed demand; can the rest of the sector be far behind? Just a thought. Sometimes, some of us put 2 and 2 together in such a way as to yield minus 5, others are able to generate a more positive sum. ;-) Ian.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27398)	12/23/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Skeeter, channel stuffing again? Sorry, but you guys are living in your own little fantasy world over on the Bearke (™ Paul Engel) thread. No, make that a parallel universe where Intel, Dell, Compaq, Gateway, IBM and HP are miserable failures as companies and as stocks. NOT! Now you're trying to manufacture the channel stuffing story in the same year that the mother of all such things just got cleared. Do you actually think these guys would be so stupid as to sit around and watch the same scenario unfold again, this soon? Give me a break. Give us all a break. Are you any relation to Jach of the Cisco thread?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27398)	12/23/1998 11:41:00 PM
From: Donald B. Fuller	Respond to of 70976

>>put 2 and 2 together and one can infer that the channels are being stuffed and an inventory correction is on the horizon...>> Yeah - I love that. That'll be the next time I bulk up my tech holdings. If they are going up 15-20% a year with a beta that alternates between doom and euphoria - a killing may be made. Buy the panic - sell never (or, if you want - sell the euphoria - personally, I prefer the former - for stinginess to the tax man issues). Don

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27398)	12/24/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Kevin Hay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Skeeter, just a note to say that the average SI thread is very bullish and will thrash anyone short. I think your reasoning is at least sound. I've thought the same thing about channel stuffing for some time, though am now starting to question that a bit. Though Kurlacks history of timing semi stocks has been quite shoddy for some time now. FWIW, I made money a number of times on vlsi this year being short and EVERY time I mentioned it to the thread got emotionaly slammed by the vast majority. I only got in trouble when I let them persuade me I was wrong. The biggest question above all others is 'how far can added liquidity take this market?' Who makes the most extreme cases: bulls or bears? I'll admit the bears can be quite nasty, but bulls can be equally in lala land. And when one side is right, the other side does completely disappear. Anyway, I see that you are the reason I haven't been thrashed more for being short...., thanks merry Christmas, happy Hannukah, good cheer to all -Kevin ps. I'm net long the market and have had a great year.