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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rascalbythesea who wrote (11527)	12/24/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: George Dawson	Respond to of 42804

bennythebug, This is the first I have heard about missed sales cycles and I appreciate this information very much. I have been long MRVC for about 2 years. We used to actually discuss the technology on this thread, and I recall that there were some problematic reviews (relative to competitior's products) of some of their equipment in trade magazines (I don't have time to search the archives for the specific links). At the time, some of the longs dismissed this information as alarmist. One of the reasons I am long is the expectation that MRVC has competitive Gigabit Ethernet products and is moving them out the door (remember the hyped GE boom?). To me it seems like there is currently a vacuum of both business and technical information. SOA = "state of the art" sometimes also SOTA. I hope along with you and a lot of other MRVCers that they can turn things around in 1999. George D.

To: rascalbythesea who wrote (11527)	12/24/1998 2:28:00 PM
From: CareyM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Benny, Welcome to SI. Like you, I am technically challenged and have suffered severely with my MRVC investment. However, your assertion that technology has passed them by is where we differ significantly. MRVC builds state of the art/SOA networking equipment and they are reinventing themselves by growing from a niche market supplier to a total solution provider. They were first, or one of the first, to market with gigabit technology and are now actively challenging the terabit barriers. Who knows? Maybe I'm the one who's got it all wrong. Again, I welcome your comments and look forward to your participation here. Good luck with your investments. Safe and Happy Holidays to all! back to lurking mode... Carey

To: rascalbythesea who wrote (11527)	12/26/1998 6:26:00 PM
From: Bruce L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

<...as I am sure you are aware by now, Q4 is going to show an operating loss.> Forgive my ignorance on a subject you are sure of, but what is your source for this assertion that the company is going to show an operating loss for Q4? At the last CC profit ($.04?) was unexpectedly low - according to management because (1) margins were at historically low levels(37-38%?), (2) R&D and SGA had increased substantially to support what had been expected to be larger and more complex sales transactions, (3) one particular product category had not shipped in the quantities anticipated because of development complexities, and (4) sales in Europe were lower than anticipated. Management (Noam?) said that the margin problem was brought on by intense price competition and the desire of the company to keep total revenue up. I believe Noam said that this strategy had been successful, but I know he said that margins this quarter would improve and that there would not be the same price cutting by the company just to keep up sales. As to the SGA, at the CC it was said, in effect, that the increase had been in anticipation of more high dollar sales than had in fact occurred, but that this expense would be cut back in the current quarter. As to the delay in the product category, I recall that it was said that it would be shipping towards the end of the current quarter. (Parenthetically, I will say that I also am one of the technologically challenged and don't recall the proper name of this product.) As to revenue, Noam said that revenue -not profit- would be up sequentially for the current quarter. Also, 3Com just reported positive earnings and cited strength in Europe as being one of the factors. MRVC has historically been strong in Europe. I am aware that some analysts have also projected an operating loss for MRVC in the current quarter, but I have not seen their analysis, and, in any event, do not place a whole lot of weight in what many of them say especially in that these projections were made (of the ones I've seen) immediately after the surprise of last quarter's disappointing earnings. But I've seen nothing from the company that would suggest an operating loss. As you are also undoubtedly aware , an operating loss - before special charges - would be very unusual from a historical viewpoint in that the company had going until last quarter a string of 34 consecutive sequentially increasing earnings reports. In summary, I've tried to keep abreast of developments in this company in which I've now invested a substantial part of my liquid wealth and would obviously like to know if in fact the probabilities indicate an operating loss this quarter. Separately, it wasn't clear from your post whether you personally had conversations with Fav-noy, Noam and Diane and whether all of them each used the expression "missed product cycle." I'd be very gratified to know. Thanks, Bruce