To: Craig Stevenson who wrote (19882 ) 12/26/1998 12:22:00 AM From: Greg Hull Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
Craig, <<I must confess to being VERY leary about these two possibilities, especially the second one. There certainly isn't anything wrong with the Reg D guys selling and taking some profits, but they control a LOT of shares, and I don't want to get in their way. Opinions, anyone?>> I think you are suggesting that they have not sold all of the 12,000,000 shares they have converted, and are retaining some for future sale. Is this correct? We have no way of determining their long position, but I have been doubtful that they would bother to be exposed to market risk. The returns have been so attractive for no exposure to risk (selling before converting) that they would seem to have little incentive to hold naked longs. By my count there have been at least 29 trading days in recent months where they could have sold prior to conversion at annualized returns in excess of 100%. These returns were "sure things", rather than our "gee, I hopes". Gee, I hope Ancor announces an OEM or two in the first week of the new year. I hope Ancor lands the IGS business, etc. If they are holding a naked long position, they are hoping for a big run-up just like us. At the very best, they would sell today at a four bagger. In my opinion any shares converted at $1 would have been sold rather than stashed. If they have not been sold yet, why not wait for a ten bagger? Even if they were tucked away, the 5% limitation would mean that 6M shares at the very most are threatening us. If they sold into good news, this would be only a few trading days. If they sold into weakness to drive the price down, to what end? Only 220 preferred shares remain unconverted at last report, out of the original 1100 shares. They would have to drive the price down by more than 30% from its present level to gain any benefit on their conversion price. I have no way of confirming this statement, but I think the threat from profit takers lies with the non-preferreds who bought in the $1-2 range, and not with the preferreds who may still own some of the shares they converted. Greg