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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: getgo234 who wrote (31195)	12/25/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: getgo234	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Jim Cramer, Thestreet.com, commented that AMZN may very well be undervalued based on the fact that it does not have any inventory. Does AMZN own the inventory stored in its two distribution centers ? Do Borders and Barnes and Noble own the inventory held in their respective distribution centers ? What about the inventories held at Borders and Barnes and Nobles' individual bookstores ? Thanks to everyone for your comments.

To: getgo234 who wrote (31195)	12/25/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

getgo, you may be right that AMZN may choose to recognize the sales of unredeemed Q4 gift certificates in Q199, so as to soften the impact of the sequential drop in sales. There will definitely be a sequential drop in sales in the 1st qtr of 1999 for AMZN, and B&N for that matter. Books, like a lot of retail items, have the highest sales in the 4th quarter. It doesn't matter whether you're selling them on the net or from a store: Demand slackens in the first quarter after the bump up in the 4th quarter. That according to an in-depth article on the book industry in the WSJ a few weeks ago. Even Mr. Blodget of 400/shr target fame expects the AMZN stock to take a significant pull-back sometime early in the first half of next year. What long will want to watch fast 300-400% gains and more disappear while the stock drops? The race will be on for the exits. That's never a pretty sight, unless you're short. After a quick look at the chart, I'm expecting a drop to the $275 range within a few days, a week or two at most. $275 is the 15 day ema. It will no doubt have some reactionary up days getting there and bouncing, but it will get there, IMO. Of one thing I am CERTAIN: AMZN and other net stocks WILL be kinder to shorts in 1999 than in 1998. Why? It's simple: It's not possible for AMZN to go up in the same percentage in 1999 as it did in 1998. Is everyone aware that AMZN has appreciated about 1,000% in 1998, with a market cap right now that's so foolish that it's unbelievable? IMO, the law of large numbers says that AMZN, AOL, YHOO, EBAY et al cannot perform in 1999 with the same vigor as 1998. YHOO for itself has appreciated over 600% in 1998, with a market cap on the high side of the $20 billion range. AOL's market cap has surpassed that of General Motors a few days ago, as an observant poster reported on one of these threads. 1999 will contain some nasty down days for the internuts.