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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (31312)	12/27/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn, I wonder how long until a similar "tombstone" article can be written about the internut stocks? People don't seem to understand that the internet CAN BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE FUTURE, but it has no more effect on a company's bottom line than any other revolutionary technology. Did the first companies to get telephone lines watch their stock price triple every week because they could now accept orders from all over the country? Did all the other companies, who were gasp 2 or 3 weeks behind some other company in getting their new fangled phone lines, go out of business? NO. Listen people, and listen good. EVERYONE VERY QUICKLY GOT A PHONE LINE. The "newness" never played any role in whether or not a company thrived or failed, because EVERYONE HAD THE TECHNOLOGY. Competition continued to be based on merit and profits, not who had the phone line first. Do you understand? EVERYONE HAS THE TECHNOLOGY. Websites for ecommerce can be thrown together in several months by any self-respecting team of programmers. Being first in this "industry" of companies who have phone lines isn't going to mean a damn thing 12 months from now. But I guess when you're a newbie and seeing letters appear on your screen is still a novel concept, you might be easily convinced to place a market order to buy Amazon for 17 billion dollars. Just as you probably bought a Hard Rock Cafe t-shirt for 17 bucks. Or perhaps planet hollywood shares for 33 bucks? Restaurants still exist (like the internet will) but overpriced and overhyped fads can appear and collapse within a subsection of any industry.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (31312)	12/27/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: Steve Yuan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

I guess the moral of this story is: enjoy the game when it is in 2nd inning, but stay out if it is in its 8th or 9th inning. The problem is that many times people mistake the 2nd inning as the 8th, and then shorts get slaughtered and longs miss an opportunity to get rich. This has happened to many people on the short side of amzon or on the sideline. On the other hand, it is also a disaster to mistake 8th inning as 2nd inning and have a slow death with losers. Sympathy goes to people who are still hanging around with Y2K stocks. However, if you study stocks in their 8th and 9th innings, their demise is usually written all over the wall before the final calamity occurs. An overvalued stock has rarely, if not never, collapsed simply because of its valuation. It will collapse only when it misses wall street's expectation. Therefore, it actually fairly safe to stay on the long side of overvalued stocks. Longs should have plenty of opportunities to exit. When it is time to exit, do not be greedy. Hopefully people on this thread can remind each other when this comes. Another word about valuation. Complaining about the insane valuation of overvalued stocks is like complaining that the society is not fair. The society has never been about fairness. Similar things can be said about stocks. The best stock will rarely be fair-valued. It will always be overvalued. Steve