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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part I) since the street.com has become so popular here I just thought I'll dig up what I could find on ONSL over there in the past month, DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME 11/30/98 61.500 106.375 108.000 48.000 14,285,300 here's what Cramer had to say in the afternoon, note the disclaimer,, does he openly say he shorted it that day ?? archive.thestreet.com Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: A Bull's Time-Out By James J. Cramer 11/30/98 2:37 PM ET Here we go. The bearish rap on the tube. One day, one &%^#&^#^# day that we go down, and the bears jump out of their cages and do a jig! Give me a break. The most bullish thing that could happen is a pullback. If we didn't get one I would be convinced this whole move really was just a short squeeze. We are now paying the price of the Onsale (ONSL:Nasdaq) craze, and, heck, like teenagers getting lectured by their folks for coming home too late, we get yelled at by the market. We deserve it. We will get over it in a couple of days. A time-out, for you younger parents. My take? If you have never owned a Net stock in your life and want to take the plunge, you are going to get your chance. If you have ridden Books-A-Million (BAMM:Nasdaq) up to the 30s, it's not too late to cash out. If you have decided to make that an "investment" instead of a trade, what are you doing reading this? You should be looking at the Burpee catalogue to pick your next dynamite investment. And if the money is burning a hole in your pocket, switch pockets. You will probably get some good prices during the week. I have started two new positions today. Nothing aggressive. And I have nibbled at some highflying brokerage stocks that have pulled back. I keep hoping more bears will come out and dance the jig that the move was phony. Get some more shorts in there to help knock down stocks. And then the next move up will be seeded. James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com at letters@thestreet.com.

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part II) archive.thestreet.com DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME -------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- ----------- 12/01/98 54.250 50.875 63.000 50.750 9,088,600 is he still short ??? Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Don't Miss Out By James J. Cramer 12/1/98 8:37 AM ET The whole thing was phony. The transports never confirmed it. Shorts squeezed the market up. It was a huge bubble, aided by the Fed's needless panic. It didn't belong above 9000 before and it does not belong above 9000 now. Hideous double top. The Net made us do it. Onsale.com (ONSL:Nasdaq) is right. Markdowns a-coming. Okay, there. I did it. I articulated the whole bearish rap. ...snipp rest of it is irrelevant

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part III) archive.thestreet.com DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME -------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- ----------- 12/03/98 38.875 53.938 56.250 37.500 6,340,900 Susan Galante, causes panic..ONSL goes below 40, If Cramers fund is still short, she might have earned a good Xmas bonus she also wrote an article on insider selling in BAMM... Silicon Valley: All Crowded on the Auction Front By Suzanne Galante Staff Reporter 12/3/98 11:36 AM ET SAN FRANCISCO -- When uBid is offered to the public market this week, it's almost certain to get an obscenely warm welcome. After all, as eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and Onsale (ONSL:Nasdaq) have found, the online auction market is popular with investors and online customers alike. But that very popularity may become uBid's undoing later on. The field of online auctioneers is a little too popular with homesteading start-ups -- and the market isn't big enough for them all. After all, the barriers to entry are tiny. If you've got something to sell, whip up a Web site and put out a press release. Dealdeal.com did, touting its "enormous" auction site last week. Demand for uBid is already high. Shares of its parent, direct marketer Creative Computers (MALL:Nasdaq), have risen sevenfold in recent weeks, partly because Creative will divest itself of its ownership in uBid to stockholders and partly because online auctions are hot shares to hold these days. As early as Friday uBid is expected to offer 1.58 million shares at $13 to $14 a share. While the buzz surrounding online auctions will help uBid's IPO today, it will also draw new competitors in the future. "A valid criticism of some Internet companies is that the barriers are not insurmountable for any new entrant," says John Leo, a portfolio manager who owns eBay in his Northern Technology fund. "And that would be true of online auction or online retailing in general." Leo sat in on uBid's roadshow and says he hasn't decided whether he'll get in. UBid's auction offers excess merchandise, including close-out and refurbished products, directly to users. Product offerings include computers, consumer electronics and home gadgets like rice cookers and juicers. In other words, it's a direct competitor to Onsale -- a company that had third-quarter revenues nearly four times as big as uBid's. And there aren't many niches left that uBid could dominate. In addition to uBid's range of products, Onsale auctions off sporting goods, vacation packages and furniture. Egghead.com (EGGS:Nasdaq) is in the business of selling refurbished goods. And eBay brings individual buyers and sellers together. "There is a lot of competition out there, and uBid has a very narrow niche," says Steven Tuen, director of research at IPO Value Monitor. "They don't have a unique story at all." But the competition doesn't end there. Some of the portals are expanding their offerings with auction sites of their own. Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) launched Yahoo Auctions in September through a deal with Onsale. The Internet Shopping Network has its own auction site called First Auction. WebAuction, the auction site of MicroWarehouse, also sells new and refurbished goods. And there are countless others. Yahoo's Web directory lists more than 100 auction sites, offering everything from celebrity doodles to boats once owned by the late Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu. In addition to competing with other auction sites, these companies also go up against America Online (AOL:NYSE), a powerhouse in online commerce that offers access to auctions to its 13 million members. In addition, many PC manufacturers are selling directly to customers. At Dell (DELL:Nasdaq), Internet sales made up about a fifth of its $4.8 billion in revenue in the September quarter. One barrier rising to block out new entrants is one that may work against uBid: brand. As time passes, the value of online brands rises, but the chances of building a strong one decline. "History has shown that the leaders of markets typically win, win, win," says Andrew Mann, a fund manager at Eureka Capital Management. "The me-too companies have their day in the sun, but the surviving franchise is usually the [company that was around] first." That would give Onsale, AOL and Yahoo an advantage over uBid, Mann says. Longer term, uBid's best hope is that there will be room for several online auction sites. "Perhaps there is enough room for more than one winner," says Eureka's Mann. "There is enormous, enormous demand, and the vast majority of people on this planet have not touched a computer to buy products with."

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part IV) archive.thestreet.com DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME -------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- ----------- 12/04/98 36.438 44.250 46.000 32.500 5,505,500 Cramer claiming victory on both ONSL and BAMM ???? Wrong! Take Two: Cramer's Rewrite of His 'Take It Where You Can Get It' Column By James J. Cramer 12/5/98 11:29 AM ET ... ... That said, at least Onsale (ONSL:Nasdaq) broke down. So the purists can claim a scalp. (Watch this stock closely next week. For some bizarre reason it is the most overweighted in the TSC Internet Index (DOT) and I think that as it goes, so goes the index. I am "keying" on ONSL to see how the Internet complex will trade.) And Books-a-Million (BAMM:Nasdaq) cracked. There's another little victory. Guess that's enough for the day. (This is my predilection in favor of seeing the froth wrung out of the market. The insiders, it seems, can't craft stock fast enough. That said, no sooner had I written this then four insiders registered shares of BAMM for sale. May the day not be distant to when people are embarrassed to be caught dumping stock right after the pop-up, so embarrassed that they would never even think of cashing out now. ) ... ...

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part V) archive.thestreet.com DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME -------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- ----------- 12/08/98 39.750 40.500 44.750 38.500 3,300,500 someone else ... read what she says about onsl The Chartist: Charting the .coms By Helene Meisler Special to TheStreet.com 12/8/98 10:55 AM ET I can't believe it. When Federal Express (FDX:NYSE) moves on its apparent link to the Internet, it is with absolutely, positively irrational exuberance. What else would you call it? Just a few months ago, FedEx was reporting disappointing earnings, its pilots were going on strike and its Asian business was awful. What a difference a .com makes! Apparently not everyone got sucked into Monday's move. FedEx only closed up about 4 on the day -- sounds great, eh? But look at the chart: It closed on its low! Thankfully some people came to their senses and sold into the news. This caused me to take a closer look at some of the "older" Internet stocks, those that have been trading for longer than a month -- in fact, at least a year. I chart America Online (AOL:NYSE), Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) at home each day. But I also decided to have a look at several others, including eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and Onsale (ONSL:Nasdaq). Much to my surprise, some of these charts have been in a corrective phase for a few weeks now and actually look OK in here. The ones that look like Onsale are certainly not stocks I would want to own; they are simply part of the irrational exuberance. Look at eBay first. It hasn't broken its uptrend line. So, it's really done nothing wrong yet. In fact, what would make the chart look awful is one of two things: breaking the uptrend line, which comes in around 150, or rallying and failing to make a new high. If the stock rallies and fails to surpass the high made in mid-November, it is likely to come down and make a lower low or break a trend line. That's typically how a pattern develops, and that's essentially two swings away from where we are now. Therefore, the stock is still OK for now. Next is Amazon.com. Amazon actually spent four months building that base from which it shot up to the moon. I've done the calculations, and the target on this stock from that consolidation was around 202. It overshot it by a 10% margin -- no big deal. (In calculating the target, I took the high of the pattern at 147, from which I subtracted the low of the pattern at 65. I came up with 82. I added 82 to the point of breakout, which, in this case, was 120, giving me a target price of 202. These are just general areas, not exact measurements.) This trip down looks like a simple pullback after a long, steep haul. What would turn this chart negative? It would first need a failing rally. This is not a parabolic chart; it is simply one that overshot its upside target. So, for now, this chart is OK as well. Now, if you want to look at a parabolic chart, and one that is not good, have a look at Onsale. Any stock that makes a round trip as fast as this one did is not one I want to own. It looks like a classic case of a short squeeze. I figure there were shorts in the stock who were forced to buy it back at ridiculous prices. They ran it up, and, as soon as the unnatural demand was filled, the stock fell back to where it belonged. Do not expect this stock to come close to its highs again. Having looked at several of these stock charts now, I surmise that some are stocks to own if you want to invest in that group, but there are so many wannabes that it's easy to get caught up in the frenzy. Thus far, the only charts of the many I looked at that appear OK for now are Yahoo, Amazon.com, America Online and eBay. Sure, they may correct more (and should), but their uptrends are still intact, making those corrections buying opportunities for now. (Readers, please do not write me with individual Internet stock questions as those mentioned are the only ones I will comment or give opinions on). The stock market as a whole continues to act better on the downside than on the upside. When the market was down last week, stocks were holding and correcting in a positive fashion. When the rally ignited on Friday's employment report, the participation on the upside was not impressive. There's been an awful lot of upside action in the technology sector, but that seems to be the only place where stocks are making new highs. That is not broad enough for me. Such is the nature of a liquidity-driven market -- too much money chasing too few stocks. I am a buyer into a decent correction, not before.

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:21:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part VI) On 21st onsl spiked up 26 points Susan came out that evening, with her now infamous article on ONSL and whats this,, next day,, Cramer hinting ONSL is a buy ?????? was she trying to bring the price down because Cramer forgot to go long after covering his short position ??? No, I'm getting overboard with my imaginations. archive.thestreet.com Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: The Gold Rush By James J. Cramer 12/22/98 12:15 AM ET Can't stand to hear about the Net anymore? Valuations driving you crazy? Well, what do you expect me to write about, how oil service companies are having trouble making their numbers? How Hercules (HPC:NYSE) blew up after the close? Net stocks are the only things people are thinking about these days. Any attempt to talk about savings and loans or chemicals or auto parts seems hopelessly irrelevant. Nobody cares, not one bit. That said, there is a year-end phenomenon at work, one that has a huge impact on groups like this. People want to show they own winners. If this group had faltered somehow in November and not come back, the vigor with which people are piling in to them would subside rather dramatically. But if you don't show that you own any Net stocks and you run money professionally, the discussion goes like this: Investor Jeff: "So, what do you think of the Net stocks?" Manager Jim: "They are stupid, the valuations are so out of control. I like the stock of National Gift Wrap and Box Company. It sells at $24 but has book of $12 and one day it will get a takeover as management is committed to bringing out value. In the meantime it pays 2.5% and I can sleep at night." Investor Jeff: "Do you think all of these stocks are just bubbles? Can't you get comfortable with any of them?" Manager Jim: "No way, they are all ridiculous." Investor Jeff: "While that is very prudent, my other managers have made a fortune in these, so I have to go with them." The only way to combat that rather obvious conversation is to say, "Hey, I own some America Online (AOL:NYSE). It has a good business model and it is making money." Or, "The Web portal business could be huge so I am long some Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq)." Or, "A lot of them make no sense to me, but I have become comfortable with the plan Lycos (LCOS:Nasdaq) has put in place." Then at least you have a fighting chance to keep the money and get more in. But to be able to say that, you have to get long. You have to buy. And when you are running $1 billion or more, as many people do these days, you can't just own a couple of thousand Onsale (ONSL:Nasdaq). You have to have a full position in the name, meaning a couple of a percent at a minimum. A couple of a percent of $1 billion is a ton of money and you have to compete with dozens of other managers playing the same game. Consequently, you get stocks up 25 or 30 points. That said, one point I must stress: These particular price moves are like no others I have seen in my life. The sheer velocity, coupled with the lack of any profit-taking, is nothing short of incredible to me and to everybody who trades professionally. The simultaneous ascension of Internet traders, of Internet commerce and the paucity, still, of Internet shares relative to the demand, is a level of serendipity that nobody banked on. It is not difficult to be both shocked and numbed. The runs these stocks are having are just staggering. The market's lack of rigor in valuation, the sheer craziness of it all, defies anything I have ever believed could happen. And I'm a believer in the Net. I can't recall a time when the market was less skeptical, more gullible, more willing to overlook fanciful claims and buy into the rap of virtually anything Net. And yet it goes on. One day maybe we will look back and say, How come nobody said, "Hey, this is crazy. These things can't all be winners"? Not every company is going to make hay on the Net. Some of these companies have nothing. But by then maybe things will have doubled or tripled again. Once something gets overvalued, it gets that much easier to get twice or three times as overvalued. Until then, the gold rush of 1998 continues unabated. And who am I to tell you there's no gold in them there hills when we have seen billions in gold created already?

To: afrayem onigwecher who wrote (2867)	12/27/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: Apache Indian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4903

thestreet.com: long or short ? (Part VII) last one... does cramer think onsl is a great buy ??? are they done with their manipulation ?? who knows. hope you had as much fun reading all this, as I did this past 2 hours.... archive.thestreet.com Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Eavesdropping on Portfolio Meetings By James J. Cramer 12/23/98 2:22 PM ET "So few good stocks to buy, so little time. Let's be sure we own some Net. Gotta own some chips. Like the networkers. Hey, couple of winning drug stocks. Stick in a software company. And a PC maker. "How about oils, airlines, rails, papers, chemicals, coppers, aluminums, retail, utilities, REITS, etc., etc., etc. "Fuggedaboudit." There. You just sat in every portfolio meeting that is going on in the country right now. I wish there were more to it, and sometime in the first quarter there will be. But this is the end of the year, and people have to look at what you own and what you know, and you don't want to know Arco (ARC:NYSE) and Bowater (BOW:NYSE). You want to know eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and Onsale (ONSL:Nasdaq)! Until then, enjoy.