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To: Larry S. who wrote (18118)	12/29/1998 7:26:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

from: Cramer TSC: on internuts Where are all the e-sellers? Where are the insiders, eager to lock in these incredible gains? Where are all the venture capitalists, sitting on massive, massive wins? Where are all of the employees, on paper rich as Croesus but in reality poorer than church mice until they can ring the register? Where are all the chief financial officers, who know that they are burning through the IPO money with no profits to show for it and deficits as far as the eye can see? The answer is that they are a few weeks away, in 1999, eagerly lining up to take advantage of these prices in a new tax year. There will be insider selling and secondaries and expired lockups galore in January and February. And there better be, because Christmas comes but once a year, and last I looked it had already happened. Or did I miss what SkyMall (SKYM:Nasdaq) and all of the other basically cyclical/seasonal e-tailers have planned for an encore? The prospectors of the great Internet gold rush are about to discover what happens to the price of gold when so much is dug up at once. I imagine it will be a little like what happens in the world of oil when there is too much oil. The price of the glutted commodity goes down. Monday's barrage of press releases from the e-world was as thick as one of those pre-Normandy beach bombardments. It softened the buyers for the coming onslaught of insider selling and secondaries. They will occur naturally because in almost every case, the amount of stock trading in the stock market is no more than a fraction of what's been locked up. And these sellers, whether they be officers, employees or venture capitalists, for the most part have bases that allow them to be incredibly insensitive to where they get out. They are your worst nightmare as an existing shareholder; they don't think there is any difference to Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) at $400 or Amazon at $300. Not when their cost basis is a few pennies, they don't. Hold it, you say. This time is different. The Net is so great that nobody will want to sell. Why sell when much higher prices have to occur if there are more glowing press releases and more alliances ahead? Why sell when, heck, Christmas is only 360 days from now and next year's Christmas is bound to be even bigger for the Net? Why sell when there is so much future in the future? To which I answer with two simple words: greed and fear. Greed because there is no sense being rich only on paper. That's not where it matters; it matters in the bank. Fear because nobody wants to see these gains go up in smoke without cashing in some chips first. Don't get me wrong. My credentials as a Net lover are on display every day of the year. I have bought in to the notion that e-tailing has the best margins, that e-publishing will crush non-e-publishing, that e-brokering is much better than non-e-brokering. I have accepted the radical change in thinking that got these stocks to where they are today. But don't ask me to forget greed and fear. They have been with us for too long. They seem to work even when everything else fails. We are hardwired as humans to react to these two emotions. Even the Net can't change that. So, get ready for the avalanche. If the cycle is the same as previous manias, the first handful of secondaries will be super. In fact, you will hear that National Gift Wrap.com, a company with 2 million shares floating out of a total of 24 million, has filed a secondary, and your instincts will be to buy the stock ahead of the roadshow! You will want to catch the pop from that lunch at the Intercontinental in New York. You will be juiced about National Gift, so juiced you will want 10% of the deal. All I can say is the day you start doing that is the day when you will have to decide which two or three Net stocks you are willing to stay long through the coming nuclear winter. You get that kind of fallout when things get that hot ahead of offerings. And don't try to get into my fallout shelter. We only have enough crackers and water for the people and partners of Cramer Berkowitz.

To: Larry S. who wrote (18118)	12/29/1998 11:26:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53068

CD, SOX (Semiconductor stocks) Larry, One could make a case that CD is simply consolidating after it's big run up from the 11 to 12 area to 20+ over the past few weeks but the narrowing of the bollinger bands is setting up a break one way or the other. The stock is approaching support at the lower daily bollinger band near 18 and I would sell it on a move below that. If it gets below 18, I think the downside risk is to 14 1/2 to 15. There is a small gap on the daily chart there and this also coincides with the location of the middle weekly bollinger band. If the stock moves through 20 3/4, then I would set an upside target of about 23. Until it breaks one way or the other, I would play the trading range by buying 18 to 18 1/2 and selling 19 1/2 to 20. The SOX has been weak the past couple of days but it held the middle daily bollinger band today. This band has contained the move since the index first closed above it on October 12 and I would buy selected semiconductor stocks on this pullback. If the SOX is going to hold, then it has to do it here; otherwise, I think they are heading for a deeper correction. I think LSI is a good buy between 15 and 15 1/2, and CMOS has held up very well during the SOX correction with excellent money flow. VLSI has risk to 9 3/4 to 10 but it looks good to me as well with a target of 12 1/2 to 13. The problems with this stock continue to be the company's high dependence on Ericsson, uncertain earnings visibility, and lack of faith in management. However, the stock is still trading below book value and the company owns land in CA that is worth more than that shown on the books. Add in the value of their IP (which doesn't show up on the balance sheet) and I think the stock is worth much more than the current 10 1/2 price. ADI has also held up well and I like it too. ATML has also pulled back into an area where I would buy with a target of 16 to 16 1/4.