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Microcap & Penny Stocks : OILEX (OLEX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CHRISTINE who wrote (4153)	12/29/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: CHRISTINE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4276

Oil Probably Won't Stay at $11 a Barrel: John Dorfman (John Dorfman is a Boston-based money manager with Dreman Value Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. The opinions expressed are his and don't represent those of Bloomberg LP or Bloomberg News. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.) Boston, Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Energy stocks account for close to 7 percent of the total market value of stocks in the U.S. That's why, when oil prices sank to a 12-year low this week, stocks tumbled. I don't believe $11-a-barrel oil is here to stay. I think oil will top $15 within a year or so, and will poke above $20 some time in 1999 or 2000. A bold prediction? It may sound like one amid today's gloom and doom. But really it isn't. In the past five years, the average price of a barrel of oil has been about $18.61. In the past 15 years, the average price has been about $20.74. So I'm merely predicting a return to more normal conditions. The chairman of the investment firm I work for, David Dreman, likes to say that investors should ''bet on the base rate, not on the case rate.'' The base rate refers to the way things normally are. The case rate refers to the special situation that may apply at a given moment, or that an analyst says should apply. Reversion to Mean It's easy to find reasons that the valuation of a particular stock or commodity should stay higher or lower than normal. But more often than not, prices end up reverting to the mean. Why? It's a statistical tendency. It's the forces of supply and demand. High prices bring out new sources of supply. Low prices cause supply sources to dry up. When oil prices are too low, owners shut down marginal wells. An old well in Texas here, a high-cost well in Canada there, and pretty soon production is decreasing. Eventually, the reduced production capacity means that remaining producers can charge more for their product. By the same token, low prices stimulate people to use oil- based products more freely. And that eventually helps pull the price back up toward an equilibrium level. The same forces apply whether the commodity in question is cars or casinos, oranges or oil. A number of special situations have combined to push the price of oil to its lowest point since 1986. But several of them are unlikely to persist beyond 1999. Here's a quick look at six of the major influences that led to today's low oil prices. It appears to me that at least five of them are temporary. Iraq Iraq. Take a world market already oversupplied with oil, and stir in an increase in the production quota of the world's bad boy, Iraq. That was the recipe for a price decline in 1998. But Iraq is now producing at or near capacity, so there are no further shocks in store from that quarter. I don't know whether Saddam Hussein will be sufficiently stupid to goad the U.S. into renewed military hostilities, or to induce the United Nations to reduce production quotas. Probably not -- he has a knack for backing down when he must. But assuming that the status quo endures, at least there will be no new slug of capacity coming onstream in 1999, as there was in 1998. Weather. The U.S. and Asia have both had warmer-than-usual winters for three years running. The Pacific El Nino current induced this balmy trend. But over the summer, El Nino gave way to a colder current known as La Nina. Most weather forecasters predict a colder-than-average winter in the U.S. this winter. Asia. Many Asian countries entered recessions during 1998. Since Asia accounts for about 20 percent of world energy consumption, and was previously a major growth area, the economic weakness was a punch in the stomach for energy demand. The worst case is that the Asian economic weakness will deepen and spread to other regions such as the U.S. and Europe. The more typical outcome -- the base rate -- would be for the Asian recessions to end in a year or so, and for energy consumption to resume its normal 3 percent annual growth rate. Momentum Momentum. Markets acquire a momentum of their own. To some extent, the price of oil is going down because it has been going down. As downward momentum is palpable, long investors (those banking on a rise in the price of oil) panic out, and shorts place larger bets that oil will fall. As we've seen many times this year, momentum can shift within a matter of days. OPEC. In its most recent meeting, held last month, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries took no action to stem falling oil prices. In its June meeting, it agreed to production cuts of 2.6 million barrels a day, or close to 4 percent of world production. Accounts conflict on how well OPEC countries are adhering to their revised quotas. Of the five unusual situations mentioned here, OPEC's disarray is probably the one least likely to be cured within a year. Turning for a moment from the price of oil to the fate of oil stocks, the proposed merger of Exxon Corp. and Mobil Corp. isn't likely to be the last word. Particularly if Exxon and Mobil do combine, other oil companies will merge in self-defense. Whenever a merger wave hits an industry, it tends to have a bullish effect on stock prices, as investors speculate on what the next target will be. My thoughts on oil prices and oil stocks could conceivably be influenced by emotion, notably self-interest. My firm has about 15 percent of its assets in energy-related investments. But the way I see it, five of the six situations discussed above are temporary. That seems to me to make the odds of an oil-price rebound in 1999 fairly high.

To: CHRISTINE who wrote (4153)	1/19/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: CHRISTINE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4276

From AOL (CALFTALK)Re:vital data from ongoing lawsuits(second half) Date: 99-01-13 03:07:52 EST From: califtalk@aol.com (CALIFTALK) Interrogatory 28. Yarmak objects that the request is overbroad, vague and ambiguous and therefore unintelligible as it does not relate to specific facts. Yarmak further objects that the request violates the attorney client privilege and work product doctrine. Without waiving said objections, Yarmak in an attempt to reasonably respond submits the following: Yarmak incorporates his response to interrogatory 24, 25, 26 and 27 as if stated in full herein and adds: The audited financial statements of Caye Chapel, the press releases of Caye Chapel and the statement of attorney Warren Soloski and the Caye Chapel web site and conversations with employees of the Texas Railway Commission and conversations with Gary Giles, Gary Geer and Cliff Budd all provided the information listed in Exhibit "E." Interrogatory 29. Yarmak objects that the request is overbroad, vague and ambiguous and therefore unintelligible as it does not relate to specific facts. Yarmak further objects that the request violates the attorney client privilege and work product doctrine. Without waiving said objections, Yarmak in an attempt to reasonably respond submits the following: Yarmak incorporates his response to interrogatory 24, 25, 26, 27 and 28 as if stated in full herein and adds: The audited financial statements of Oilex, the press releases of Oilex, the Oilex web page, Oilex's 10-K and 10-Q filings, broker confirmations and wire transfers from securities sales in Canada. Interrogatory 30. Yarmak objects that the request is overbroad, vague and ambiguous and therefore unintelligible as it does not relate to specific facts. Yarmak further objects that the request violates the attorney client privilege and work product doctrine. Without waiving said objections, Yarmak in an attempt to reasonably respond submits the following: Yarmak incorporates his response to interrogatory 24, 25, 26, 27, 28 and 29 as if stated in full herein and adds: Statements by Stanley Griffin, Omar Ahmed, Willie Brown, Richard Clark, Deborah Sachery and Oliver Timmins and a letter from Oliver Timmins and the audited financial statements and financial reports of Oilex and stockbroker reports of Oilex and the records of BT Energy showing its transactions with Oilex in the acquisition of royalty interests. Documents 4. Yarmak objects that the request seeks public information available on the internet which Burditt has equal access to. In addition these documents are in the possession of attorney Warren Soloski who represents Burditt's other companies. Therefore the request is overbroad, burdensome and oppressive. Therefore no documents will be produced. In addition, Burditt prepared the majority of those press releases and he has copies of said releases. Documents 26. Discovery is continuing and Yarmak believes there will be additional documents in support of this contention. At this time the documents showing the trail of Oilex's funds to Phoenix Reserves then to escrow for the purchase of the property and the contract for the sale of the property establish Burditt's interest in the property through M. Patten Holdings. 6. Yarmak objects to the interrogatory as all other requested information is confidential and not reasonably calculated to lead to the discovery of admissible evidence. Yarmak specifically objects that his prior work experience is irrelevant to the allegations that he posted untrue unprivileged messages regarding Burditt. Omar informed Yarmak that Omar controlled the web page for Oilex and Caye Chapel. 13. Objection, vague and ambiguous and overbroad therefore unintelligible. In addition, the request calls for inforamtion protected by the work product doctrine and attorney client privilege. The request also impermissibly violates the rule against subparts. Without waiving said objections Yarmak responds that all assertions of fact that he has made have been truthful. Further, Yarmak has not improperly or otherwise taken any property from Burditt's residence. Objection, request is overbroad, vague, ambiguous, burdensome, oppressive and unintelligible as to "or made of." In addition, this information is equally available to Burditt. Without waiving said objections, Yarmak responds that prior to Yarmak's becoming president of Oilex, all Oilex press releases, financial statements, web pages, Oilex policy statements, presentations were all controlled and therefore made by Burditt. In addition, these same communications made by Caye Chapel, BT Energy, Phoenix Reserves, M. Patten Holdings and Churchill Resources were also made by Burditt. Requiring this multitute of statements to be transcribed is truly burdensome and oppressive.