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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2617)	12/29/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans, I suspect the thing that keeps Bob sanguine at these P/E's is his continued very low inflation outlook allowing for multiple expansion following which earnings will catch up. As to the issue of possibly disengaging sooner rather than later I think I recall the remark you are thinking of and based on information since then I think that is no longer an issue but Bob will go strictly by his timing model Marc

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2617)	12/29/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

MGJ: I think you are correct in your assumption that Brinker will bump up earnings projections most notably for 2000 earnings estimates. Brinker has made it a point to suggest that the Y2K expenditures will be a one time event with money earmarked for that item in 1999 falling to the bottom line in 2000. Minutes from FRB from Nov 19th do not suggests imminent rate cut to me. I smell neutral. Market has ignored this possibility in liquidity frenzy IMO. That's the way it is in a raging bull. There is no bad news. Need some good reason to prompt another cut IMO. Take your pick. Slowing economy? Not quite yet. Brazil? Japan? Russia? Uncle Bill in combo with one of the above? Who knows...but it ain't here now IMO. Do not expect Brinker sell signal except in prospect of bear market. Corrections don't count as we have all learned, even the intermediate ones so long as the bullish LONG term story is intact <g>. Brinker said the market wanted to go higher the other week. And at that point, you had to agree. Nothing mattered as the flow of funds was HUGE and bad news was STIFFED by the market. Maybe a change in tune come January by Brinker or by end of winter season <g>. I agree that it is in order here. Last I heard Brinker does not expect a correction of more than 10% in broad market.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2617)	12/29/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: Lars	Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans, >>> However, I thought I have heard Bob mention within the past year or two that if the market moves too far too fast perhaps he would possibly disengage sooner rather than later. >>> I think it is prudent to reallocate here, especially in tax deferred accounts. I can't believe the S&P 500 is at this level right now. Wow! Mr. Market is so happy right now. I think the toughest challenge is what Sheldon Jacobs has said or inferred. He believes we will see sharp 6 to 9 month bears with quick return to upside in this type of market environment. Due to Bob's general audience I think it would be difficult to pull out unless it was "the bear". Then again he is the expert, not me. I have pulled back my large cap exposure massively. I am selling S&P500 index fund to a large degree also. Thank goodness most all of this is in tax deferred accounts. Ultrabull was fun while it lasted too. Mr. Market can be so foolish sometimes. I am not going all to cash but I am being very cautious. The only large cap I have been buying is Berkshire Hathaway. Right now, Mr. Market is being way too happy. As Buffett has said, "You don't find out who is swimming naked until the tide rolls out." I have a feeling many people are swimming naked in that they are paying no attention to asset allocation. I heard a story from a friend about a couple putting all of their 403b and 401k money into the S&P 500 index fund investment choice. This money is being pulled out of bonds. They normally don't buy equity funds. This type of action scares the hell out of me because these people don't have a clue or the tenacity to ride out another 20% decline. I know them. As sure as Bob is the Starship Commander they will sell and get hurt.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2617)	12/29/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: mister topes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

So far it looks like Bob's forecast has been far more accurate than the Fed's forecast about the stock market. After all, it was the Starship Captain who told his listeners October 11 that they could not even afford to be out of the stock market "for one single day" with the redundancy obviously for emphasis. Fortunately, I took the Captain's advice and have my own watermelon smile for New Years! Also, you gotta love the bearishness expressed on this thread by those wearing green jeans. That wall of worry is so much fun to climb as the Brinkmeister likes to say. We love the bears and we need the bears cause without them this market is toast.