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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (13624)	12/30/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

I have looked hard for a definition on the IRS website but can't find a definitive answer there: irs.ustreas.gov However, I am pretty sure it is the sale date, not the settlement date.

To: t2 who wrote (13624)	12/30/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 74651

About 2 weeks ago I predicted that the internet stocks will start going down by first week of January. Starting to look like the prediction is starting to come true. In fact a day or two early. Today YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, AOL are all down by ~10%. I think the big money managers are unloading before the little guys come back from vacations Monday and start dumping these tulip.coms. 2 weeks ago I also felt and stated that the internet meltdown would bringdown all stocks along with it including the NASDAQ big caps and we are gettinv a sample of that today. All precitions of 150 and 160 for MSFT by Dec. 30th have pretty much fallen part, that is natural as short term is hard to predict and MSFT is already overvalued in Microsoft's view. Longer term investors will be happier to see MSFT go down to around 120 - 130 in Jan so that MSFT starts stock buybacks and put warrant sales, currently it is not able to due rich valuations. Unfortunately there are many short term traders on this thread who hold Jan 15th short term options and LEAPS that are expiring in Jan99 who would like to get the max bagger effect due highest short term valuations. If that happens that is good (at least for them). But then I know it will correct after that as Microsoft as company is focused on the long term (5- 10 yers). By the way, I have been 100% microsoft (as Sonki observed) this year. By buying low and selling high, I have been able to eek out 250% return on my beginning of the year 32,500 investment. It has grown to 110,000 as of today. Can't complain at all. That covered most of my previous year capital losses when I invested in MSFT competitors. The points I bough tthis year are at 65 (Jan), 84(May), 118(July), 97(Sept), 102 (Sept),. I sold at various points, including I am a seller now. I will be back in when we get back to reasonable PEs of 50s. I like to sell current PE levels of 72. Microsoft's last 5 year PE ranges are from 22 to 72. 72 now is the highest. It has been a great year. johnd