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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (13628)	12/30/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

If you look at the Nasdaq over the past 4 years or so, you see a pattern of the Nasdaq rising and falling off the 200 day moving average. Last October was the one anomaly where the Nasdaq "corrected" far below the 200 day moving average. Splits announcements may help to propel the rally into February, but I can't imagine what could sustain this rally beyond that, especially as we get into earnings warnings in March. I'd stay away from any January calls play on the last week or two before expiration, because your risk benefit is just not there in my opinion. I'd prefer to get in at the beginning of a breakout and 2 or 3 months out, then roll up or get out when the move is topping (this is done with already for MSFT). Only reason I'd be in Microsoft options after earnings is if they announce a split, and you have to own February options to get that lottery ticket. These next couple of weeks are just mop up on in the moneys, hopefully there'll be some buyers in January. I'm thinking about shorting some semiconductor stocks like JBL or TXN in late January because these seem like likely candidates to lead a fall in the event of a tech wreck. Any opinions?