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To: Moose who wrote (3641)12/30/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Stuart C Hall  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29970
 
I find it difficult to believe AOL+NSCP will fail.

I feel that in _comparison_ to ATHM's growth the AOL+NSCP merger will be a failure. They'll obviously not disappear as there is a sucker born every minute. And then one minute later that sucker receives an AOL CD in the mail. ;-)

If you were Case and you were to decide on bandwidth or NSCP which would you choose? I think the majority of the people on this thread who are looking long term feel Case made the wrong choice for AOL. It will take a long while for those 14 Million AOL subscribers to realize what we are discussing today.

60% of 'Net searches are done on YHOO. The remaining 40% are divided up among the next 10 search engines. I don't have an exact figure for NSCP but I find it hard to believe that NSCP will smoothly integrate into AOL while at the same time maintaining, much less improving, their market share in the Portal Wars.

Being a proprietary operator in an open standards environment has proved deadly for Apple. I feel you could compare this stage of AOL to Apple in the mid 80's. AOL has lost sight of the big picture and the larger market in favor of building upon their proprietary and ultimately limited technology. Bringing in NSCP for compatibility issues does not open up their network.

I'm not completely sold on your assertion that we'll see more traditional ISP's merge with Portals. To what effect?

However, I will offer a potential example in the cable arena. Here is the URL for the TWX cable service I use in San Diego. I wouldn't classify it as a portal but I believe you will see the features and customization of My Yahoo! slowly make it's way to the very localized content of cable provider's home pages. The bandwidth in combination with the ISP function and local content from a cable company allow for this marriage more effectively than if we have a MSPG with an XCIT who are serving a national clientele. When you have the customization of My Yahoo in combination with the local content of an ISP then you will have a powerful tool. Having the bandwidth to do video is just icing on the cake.

san.rr.com


Regards,
Stuart