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To: Stuart C Hall who wrote (3646)	12/30/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

It will take a long while for those 14 Million AOL subscribers to realize what we are discussing today. In case you had not noticed, it is 15M today. +1M in a month. So while everyone predicts AOL's demise, the cockroaches keep spreading. dailynews.yahoo.com

To: Stuart C Hall who wrote (3646)	12/30/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: Moose	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Lot's of things to respond to... As RocketMan pointed out, AOL is now at 15M subscribers. Before this Christmas, 22% of all US homes were online. That's right in the knee of the S curve and I will venture to say that another 22% will be added within 3 years (the main reason I am overweighted in ISPs). As I said before, most of these newbies are looking for pre-packaging. Your point re: open standards is becoming more and more moot as the new users expect more and better features in a single purchase. The best evidence of this is this Christmas's best selling computer: the iMac - a box with two plugs; one for power, one for the phone line. Simple, simple, simple, and great marketing I might add. AOL didn't have to make a choice between broadband (BB) and NSCP. AOL has something greater than 1B in the bank and a stock which drips greenbacks overnight. I believe the NSCP purchase provides: 1) A great co-branding (don't underestimate the value of the following 7 letters "Netscape"), 2) Technology and expertise to build a premier portal, and 3) The browser/portal - a pair of tools to keep the new 1M subscribers from switching to ELNK, MSPG, etc. Re: AOL and BB. AOL may not have been successful in obtaining access to T's @HOME infrastructure, but don't expect that to halt their progress. It simply means they now have to make deals with those in control - believe-you-me, AOL will not stifle and blow away along with 56k modems. BTW, realize that @HOME is just getting started with some 50x less subscribers. AOL has plenty of time to make a deal with one of the cable operators w/o worry of loosing subscriber base. Re: Portals and ISP's merging. My evidence is once again AOL. MSN for that matter as well. All ISPs generally ship a browser to new users along with a pre-programmed startpage. This is how XCIT is getting around town. As the market tightens (>40% of US households online), the portals will be forced to partner with ISPs in order to secure a user-base. The ISPs want this in order to provide a richer experience which they can control, and the Portals need this to stay alive. It has to happen. I took a look at the RoadRunner page. Interesting - feels like geocities in a way - centric to a geography. This is good stuff, but only a single feature of what true portals are building - note YHOO user Geocities. I think '99 will be the year that everyone 'talks' about BB. I think '00 will be the year of BB. -Moose