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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5128)	12/30/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Lawrence, <<How about - a) high debt b) negative cash flow c) recurring losses >> As disturbing as all those are, I can live with them in a speculative stock; << d) extremely optimistic earnings forecasts and most disturbingly e) repeatedly promises more than they deliver>> d and e have really bothered me along with the usual yield question. Frankly optimistic earning forecasts, failure to deliver on promises and yields are probably all the same issue. Maybe, God willing, GMR will fall flat on its face. Technological discovery of more methods to push the limits of the magnetic effect will cease and we will need to stuff our desktops with 10 platter 40 head hot running high margin monsters that dim the lights when you boot up. <dripping sarcasm> Tired of being pessimistic, Yogi

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5128)	12/31/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<How about - a) high debt b) negative cash flow c) recurring losses d) extremely optimistic earnings forecasts and most disturbingly e) repeated promises more than they deliver> True. But why didn't you see their turn coming when it went from around $13 to $35? I think you are right on all issues, but you fail to see that they have the best product and they have made great progress increasing production. This surely is a very positive weight sitting on the other side of the scale. At $35, I think you are again right, Hutchinson is fully valued. They were a great buy in the teens though, and they did a rapid price increase not just because the market turned, but because they changed their image at Diskcon and said very positive things. This was again followed up with a good conference call. Clearly, their product is the most valued, but availability has held sales back. If they continue to improve their production and get the yields, they will have a very good turn around. It would be nice if Fujitsu and Seagate were customers, but you can't have it all. But, the things you say are still true and make it difficult for me to see investing at this price. I believe anyone who calls for high values on a HDD company is asking for a lot of help from a market that traditionally things these companies are losers. Regards, Mark