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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jake0302 who wrote (13653)	12/31/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Jake, I think we have a new paradigm now on PE's, and this means the MSFT can hold an 80 to 100 PE. I have made a bundle on it, and on AOL. I think Aol can hold a 200 PE if it can give us 200% growth, but if it doesn't; by, by. It looks like Intel, a commodity manufacturer, is now going to be valued at a 40PE, due to its being a "Gorilla", plus the change in the market. I think the guys on Wall Street are scared to death that this whole thing is going to collapse around all our heads, and take them down with us. That's a legitimate fear. They know that you, and people like you, have never seen a bear market, or bad times. Hell, look what a little interest rate decision last summer did to the market! I guess, besides MSFT, you are in Cisco, WCOM, Intel, and maybe Quest and AOL. That seems to be where all of us are. We all know that these are really the safest stocks to be in if we get a downturn, because they will still deliver the earnings. The rest of the market is catching on to this, making our fortunes, and creating incredible PE ratios, by old standards. Looks like a fun year!

To: Jake0302 who wrote (13653)	12/31/1998 9:57:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Jake, I like your spunk and you make some good points. However, the fear that the media has is not that we don't need them. In fact, as we take control of our finances, we need them more. You could probably graph the viewership of CNBC and the growth of the web and there would be a strong correlation. That is not a coincidence. We need information. The brokers, on the other hand, do have that fear. What the media are "afraid" of is a painful adjustment caused by the tulip.com run up. I agree with you that the rules for P/E have changed, at least temporarily. However, the valuations of some of these companies is temporary. For some others, it may be more permanent. The media will actually profit from a collapse, because their viewership with spike! I like your spirit, but don't get carried away with your exuberance. The flip side of your coin about the investors being at work so can't trade is that when they get home and see the damage done, they say "I gotta go to work tomorrow and I can't watch this from there. I better put my sell order in now." They are likely to place a "market" order and be very disappointed that night at how far the market took them down for a selling price. I will stick with the infrastructure guys (MSFT, CSCO, INTC, etc.) and will not sell on downturns, no matter how hard it gets.

To: Jake0302 who wrote (13653)	1/3/1999 4:27:00 AM
From: Daiju Kohno	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

I agree with your post whole-heartedly. BTW,I am also a young law school student, though sometimes (given the profitability of the market) I wonder why. Also, I am one of those TA believers for one important reason that you mentioned: psychology. Take a look at the MA's for MSFT and the major indices and there is a definite correlation there. Coincidence? Tech2K, I also think TA is a bogus way to predict stock movement, but surely you'd agree that it is a somewhat useful way to predict other investors' actions, no? Anyway, to my question for anyone listening: My largest holding is MSFT (IRA) followed by DELL, AOL, and WCOM. I'd like to add to one of these positions for our 1999 IRA contributions (I manage 4 retirement accounts for the in-laws), but I am not sure which has the best long term growth prospect even though I like all of them. Any suggestions? (And I do need to stay on good terms with the in-laws!) DK