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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (3711)	12/31/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 29970

OK, let's say ATHM is successful in 10 years. Use the following assumptions in measuring this success: 100M households with cable access. 90% of these access the internet. 30% of these use cable for internet. 70% of these use ATHM. This gives ATHM 19M customers paying $500 per year. This provides 9.5B in revenues. At 35% net margin, provides 3.3B in earnings. At 20 PE, provides 66B mkt. cap. Discounted at 8% risk adjusted opportunity cost, gives present value of projected mkt. cap of 35B. Adjust for 30% more shares outstanding, brings present value to 24.5B or about 2 1/2 times current value. Doesn't seem like that much left on the table. Which numbers would you change? Tim

To: ahhaha who wrote (3711)	12/31/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

At least 2/3 of the demanding public can't engage ATHM without a hookup crew coming out ahhaha, you know the hardware better than most. Explain to me why it would not be possible for someone like CPQ to sell a "plug-n-play" computer for ATHM service. In other words: Let's assume T/TCI has anticipated a neighborhood or city will want ATHM and has done all the preliminary work it possibly can. Consumer buys and takes home the special CPQ computer. Consumer calls the ATHM office for set-up and walk-through. Consumer sticks the cable plug in the specially designed computer and runs provided program. Even if some local hook-up needs to be done, it seems that all the "box work" can be done by CPQ and that has to be time consuming.