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To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)	1/1/1999 12:19:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 29970

I'd quadruple the PE, and quadruple the revenues because they don't include @Work and @Media. The other numbers are so-so and most are too conservative. Also there are synergies and economies of scale which will leverage margins. So the quad should be something like 40 times when you talk about the world and 1 billion eyeballs. So we're talking 400 times the present price. Stock at 28,000. We are talking about the biggest and most important media/communications company in the world. $2 trillion in revenues. It won't be ATT that swallows, rather ATT will be swallowed by the behemoth. The behemoth will also absorb Disney, most of what we now call tv networks, movie companies, what we now call telcos, etc. The company will be in a growth phase at that time going for 2 billion eyeballs.

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)	1/1/1999 3:53:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

While my vision for ATHM in 10 years may not be quite as grand as ahhaha's (though he may be right: I think YHOO and AOL have equal chance of reaching that stage) I'd like to give a little perspective on your assumtions: 100M households with cable access. The world is much larger than that. Then there are all the businesses too. 90% of these access the internet. fair enough. Maybe even a little high when you take into account the whole world. 30% of these use cable for internet. Are you nuts? 95% of access in 10 years will be broadband. Cable will be at least 80% of broadband. A little perspective: By my memory roughly 10 years ago we were all trading in our recently purchased 1200bps modems for new "high speed" 2400bps modems which we used to dial up bulletin boards and sometimes an online service like Compuserve. How many people today still use a 2400bps modem? In 10 years the current 10mb cable modems will be at least 3 or 4 generations old, and what we have now will be antiquated and grotesquely slow. It will be at least a bi-directional real-time video stream for every "computer" in the house (maybe 1 per room). Of course the computer will be running at about the equivilant of a 20GigaHertz PII. As many people will have our current "high speed" then as use 2400bps modems today. Broadband internet access will be the central means of all electronic communications. It will be as ubiquitous and central to our lives as the telephone and the television are today. ATHM & T will be the provider of it, and that is just thinking small. Eric But my comments bring to mind a question: How much thought has been put into backwards compatability & interoperability as technology advances? How will the network (from the users view) of today migrate to the one 10 years from now?

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)	1/1/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: Michael P. Michaud	Respond to of 29970

I don't think you factored in revenues from Advertising and on-line shopping. Look at how fast on-line shopping has grown.....I believe it tripled this year!! Mike

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)	1/1/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: Ryan Rumanang	Respond to of 29970

TIm, you miss to add the advertising revenue... Revenue from subscriber is fixed, but don't undestimate ad revenue, especially if you have 19M subs. More vendors will pay higher rate if you have larger subs. That's why AOL has it now...

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)	1/1/1999 2:46:00 PM
From: FR1	Respond to of 29970

Which numbers would you change? Change? You haven't put the numbers on the table yet! Your numbers assume there is no such thing as business. The only thing that exists in the world are homes. At the present moment there is such a crushing demand by business to sign up at ATHM that they can't possibly handle the workload. Therefore they are refusing to let businesses hook up (that's why @Work is around). Try this experiment: Call @Home, tell them you are a business, and tell them you want to sign up your office computers for @Home. They won't let you in. Now ask yourself what business turns away customers at the door. Answer: A business that is so swamped with orders that they can't handle the workload they have. Basically, ATHM is saying that as they get hardware under control and can handle "people traffic" they will start to allow businesses to use the regular ATHM service. Home businesses will slip under the radar. Right now they can only sell businesses dedicated lines through @Work.

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)	1/2/1999 2:42:00 AM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

>> This gives ATHM 19M customers paying $500 per year. Quadruple this number, or more. Aren't AOL's indirect revenues (ads) greater than their direct revenues from access fees? Aren't the portal wars about this revenue stream? Isn't this really about moving consumerism into virtual space? And the observation that he who controls the wire into your house effectively controls the "shelves" of that virtual space? Huge amounts of money currently move around behind the scenes of consumerism ... vendors pay to get product on an end-cap in CompUSA, they pay for ad space in the Zones catalog, etc, etc ... kickbacks of every form abound. Many disties, retailers, and catalogs can LOSE money on selling product ... they are happy to take the more predictable fees the vendors pay to reach their markets. I spent more money on Christmas present via the web than retail this year ... first year that's true for me. This is a datapoint for me. Pay Movies, Pay Games, etc, etc, etc ... Count up all the advertising dollars floating around pushing product ... move some fraction of those dollars into cyberspace. I suggest each customer will eventually be worth ... what? ... at least $2K ... upwards of $10K for us yuppies. Then add $300/month or more for every business user. ... just my thoughts