To: signist who wrote (11546 ) 1/3/1999 1:46:00 PM From: STU Respond to of 42804
Peacelover, I have not lost patients, just dollars. I still believe we can get an upside surprise in 1999. Keep my Rev expectation on your wall highlighted for 9/98 - 9/99 at 360MM. Earnings have become a challenge from significant price competition within the LAN markets. Remember that this is 30% of MRV's business. Management has an uphill battle, but when margins return, we will be back at higher EPS with less shares outstanding and higher Revenue levels. If 1 year from now we are again at margins of 13% at Quarterly Revenue levels of 85mm and shares outstanding of 25mm, Quarterly EPS will be $.44 and growing. I've takin this bet at $6/share. This is not the same company from 1 year ago. Just look at the long list of product choices they offer. You need it, they've got it. MRV has become a well rounded company with a full engineering and sales staff to compliment every clients needs. The order of magnitude of each sales ticket has increased from a parts supplier of the OEM market to a full systems supplier. Their sales and distribution system is strong. I would not expect the shallow growth we have seen in the 6/98 – 12/98 to continue as newer products continue to bring in new sales. Remember I said to recheck this company in the Mar '99 through Sept '99 period. Yes, the economics of the world has changed dramatically over the last 10 months, but MRV's segments are still at the top of the needs of the business community. MRV increasing their product line with WAN and MAN products from Optics and LAN increases the size of the markets they sell to therefore increasing market share. Their case study of the BART system on the MRV.COM website is witness to their ability as an all in one communications company. Over the next 6-9 months, the introduction of the "SPIDER" Terabit Router will again wake up the investment community to acknowledge the value of the company's leading edge engineers. As we start 1999 are our expectations now of a profitable company or a has been? I think the former. As soon as the street even gets a hint of MRV returning to profitability this stock will be off and running. Will this happen this month? Certainly not, but over the next 6 months, with world interest rates dropping to historic lows, we should begin to gain confidence again. Keep the Faith STU