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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11553)	1/3/1999 2:25:00 PM
From: Brian Hornby	Respond to of 44573

GZ, Thanks. On oil I feel it will recover past 14 this quarter. The last downturn, in 1993, had a much bigger oversupply of oil and the price only went as low as 14. Venezuela now has the election over and the new president is apparently willing to play ball to reduce the oversupply. What he actually does of course is a wild card. Some continued friendly API numbers and some optimism ahead of the next OPEC meeting should create a bounce. The first bounce likely will be sold however and your strategy to sell the rally would likely work. Another bounce once the oversupply is actually reduced would last, but real numbers are needed; bounces on nice talk will not last. So I think we both can make money short or long. I am cautiously optimistic though.