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To: Andrew H who wrote (13869)1/3/1999 3:57:00 PM
From: Robert B.  Respond to of 44908
 
Andrew,

<<While these posts are interesting, I think they may well overstate the potential of the deal.>>

I agree that the posts are optimistic. However, Sam is closest to this deal and knows how much money previous fundraising activities have raised. I don't think that we can disregard Sam's projections.

-Rob



To: Andrew H who wrote (13869)1/3/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: David A. Irvine  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 44908
 
Andrew H.,
I agree with you. I think the links provided in Robert's post may overstate the number of potential new customers. For comparison, CDNow claims to have had a *combined total* of 738,000 customers from 1994 to September 30, 1998. See below.

<<< CDnow has grown rapidly since its inception in 1994. Of the 738,000 customers who have made purchases since inception through September 30, 1998, 442,000 made their initial purchases during the nine month period ended September 30, 1998. Average daily visits to the CDnow store have grown from approximately 12,000 in January 1996 to approximately 215,000 in September 1998. The Company's net sales grew to $13.9 million in the third quarter of 1998 compared to $11.6 million and $3.9 million in the second quarter of 1998 and the third quarter of 1997, respectively. The Company has also generated significant customer loyalty. Despite the Company's rapid acquisition of new customers, repeat customers accounted for approximately 59% of net sales in the third quarter of 1998. >>>

I think this just goes to show the magnitude of this Babe Ruth deal. If we have 900,000 potential salespeople out there selling on average one card each we get a lot of potential customers. Imagine, we could get a customer base equal to half of CDNow's customer base in just a few months. It took CDNow years to get to where we could be by June. The potential is mind boggling.

-Dave



To: Andrew H who wrote (13869)1/3/1999 4:46:00 PM
From: REW  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 44908
 
Andrew H,

I have to fall between the estimates for the BR fund raising efforts.

If only each child or 900,000 sells a Card on the average during the first effort in January and I think it can be higher if the instructions are done properly, CCI gets $5/Card. The Card will be a new item and interesting to the kids from the old sale worn items.

The Card will have useage instructions and the first batch will primarily be sold to close acquaintances or relatives. The pressure to use these first Cards especially will be greater since the kids will be close to them and will ask if they used it.

The money input to CCI will come initially from the Card sales and the first CD buys. I would expect at least 1-2 CDs to come almost immediately from the sold Cards. Estimated income from both aspects could easily go over 7 million in the first month.

Continuing efforts throughout the year could do another million Cards.
Orders should be able to still be maintained on the average of one CD/Mo/Card. That is each team only selling about 3-4 Cards a month.
They should be displayed at all the games for purchase and the kids will still be asked to sell individually.

As Sam said, the All Stars in Aug hit the road for more fund raising and hit it with a vengence. By then they will have better sales techniques also. He thinks they will do better then than in Jan. If it only does the same, we have about 3 million Cards sold in the first year. I might be conservative if the coaches will push the fund raising and Sam says they do. Time will tell.

I think we might be looking at around 25 million in CCI revenue. If it works properly and the emphasis is kept on the Card sales by Babe Ruth the earnings to CCI can go to or over .35/share.